Population Dynamics - Countries
December 05, 2012
9.1 Billion Population by 2050; Growth Will Mushroom in Poorer NationsFebruary 26, 2005 Daily Post (UK)
The world's population will increase by 40% to 9.1 billion in 2050, but the growth will be in the developing world. The population in less developed countries was expected to swell from 5.3 billion to 7.8 billion in 2050. The population of richer countries will remain unchanged, at 1.2 billion. The expected growth would be concentrated in countries that already had problems providing shelter, health care and education. India, Pakistan, Nigeria, Congo, Bangladesh, Uganda, the United States, Ethiopia and China are likely to contribute half of the increase. The population is projected to triple in Afghanistan, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Chad, Congo, the Republic of Congo, East Timor, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mali, Niger and Uganda. In 2000-2005, fertility levels remained above five children per woman in 35 of the 148 developing countries. The pace of decline in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia was slower than anticipated. 60 countries are highly affected by the HIV epidemic and the impact is evident in increased deaths and slower population growth. In southern Africa, life expectancy has fallen from 62 in 1995 to 48 in 2000-2005, and is projected to decrease to 43 over the next decade.
Winners and Losers in World of Huge Population Change 9 Billion PeopleFebruary 26, 2005 The Scotsman
The world's population is expected to rise from the current 6.5 billion to 9.1 billion by 2050. India's population will overtake China before 2030, while Britain will be bigger than France by 2025 but Scotland faces a decline. China has been exercising a birth control policy, although there are considering relaxing it because of the ageing population. India's higher fertility will overtake China as the world's most populated country. Britain's population will overtake France by having higher immigration. The population of the developed world will remain stable while Scotland faces population decline, with 5.05 million falling to 4.84 million by 2009. The rise of global population is a serious concern but has slowed in recent years. There will be 1,395 million people in India by 2025, and 1,593 million by 2050. China's population will grow to 1,441 million by 2025, before slipping back to 1,392 million in 2050. The UK's population will overtake France by 2025, rising from almost 60 million to more than 67 million by 2050 while France's population will have risen from 60.5 million to 63.1 million. France and Britain have similar birth and death rates, but the UN assumes that Britain will have a higher rate of immigration. The big concern is Africa. The UN's revision said the population in less-developed countries was expected to swell from 5.3 billion today to 7.8 billion in 2050. By contrast, the population of richer, developed countries will remain unchanged, at 1.2 billion. In 1950, the world's population stood at 2.5 billion, which rose to just over 4 billion by 1975. In 1999 it was just over 6 billion and by the start of 2004 had reached 6.3 billion. The expected growth has serious implications because it will be concentrated in countries that have problems providing adequate health and shelter. India, Pakistan, Nigeria, Congo, Bangladesh, Uganda, the United States, Ethiopia and China are likely to contribute half of the world's population increase. The population is projected to at triple in Afghanistan, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Chad, Congo, the Republic of Congo, East Timor, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mali, Niger and Uganda. In southern Africa, with the highest AIDS prevalence, life expectancy has fallen from 62 years in 1995 to 48 years and is projected to decrease to 43 over the next decade. China's changing population was due to uprooting people from rural lifestyles into an urban economy. China has an ageing population but the picture is much rosier for India which has a younger populationto power its economy and fertility rates are slowing down. Europe's population is on a downward trend and will drop from 728 million to 653 million in 2050. That figure includes population falls in Italy and Germany. By 2050, there will be 101 million Turks up from 73 million.
India World's Largest Nation by 2030, UN SaysFebruary 25, 2005 Agence France Presse
The UN's latest global population report predicted that India would reach 1.593 billion by 2050, while China will reach 1.392 billion. India will surpass China by 2030. India's fertility rate is over three children per woman while China's is about 1.7. The report also forecast that world population will hit 9.1 billion by 2050, with India and Pakistan seeing the biggest increases. But almost all of the growth will come in developing nations, and the overall increase is "inevitable" even though fertility rates in the developed world continue to plummet. In 15 nations mostly in Europe the birth rate has fallen below 1.3 children per woman. The U.S. increase is due to the continuing arrival of immigrants, who tend to have more children. Population is expected to triple in Afghanistan, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Chad, Congo, the DRC, East Timor, Guinea Bissau, Liberia, Mali, Niger and Uganda. The projections assume a decline in fertility from 2.6 children per woman to slightly more than 2 by 2050. The trend toward lower birth rates combined with longer life expectancy means that the world population will be getting older. Those more than 80 years old are believed to number around 86 million now and will soar to 394 million by mid-century.
The world's population is expected to rise from 6.5 billion to 9.1 billion by 2050 with the growth in the developing world. The population of developed countries will remain at 1.2 billion. India will be the world's most populous country by 2030. The population in the world's 50 poorest countries will more than double by 2050. Afghanistan, Chad and East Timor will see their numbers going up three-fold. They are unable to provide shelter and food for all their people, but if fertility dropped, they would buy time to face the problems. Africa has seen life expectancy at birth decline from 62 in 1995 to 48 years in 2000-2005 due to the spread of HIV and other infectious diseases, as well as armed conflicts and economic stagnation. The overall trend shows a lower rate of growth in the past 20 to 50 years. The population continues to grow but at a lower pace. By July 2005, the world will have 6.5 billion inhabitants, 380 million more than in 2000 or a gain of 76 million annually. Eight countries will account for half the population increase: India, Pakistan, Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Bangladesh, Uganda, the United States of America, Ethiopia and China, listed according to the size of their contribution to population growth.
The latest Environmental Sustainability Index (ESI) ranks Norway, Uruguay, Sweden and Iceland two to five respectively, their success attributed to natural resources, low population density, and management of environment. The ESI ranks countries on environmental sustainability, pollution levels, environmental management, protection of the global commons, and capacity to improve its environmental performance. The U.S., which is placed 45th behind the Netherlands and ahead of the U.K., reflects top performance on water quality and environmental protection. But the U.S. was ranked bottom on waste and greenhouse gas. The lowest ranked countries are North Korea, Iraq, Taiwan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan - all face challenges, and have poorly managed policies. Belgium is as wealthy as Sweden, but it lags with regard to pollution control and natural resource management. Political debate, a free press, lack of corruption, rule of law are correlated with environmental success. Finland is the equal of the U.S. in competitiveness but scores higher on sustainability and outperforms the U.S. from air pollution to global-scale environmental efforts. Developed countries face pollution stresses and consumption-related issues. Developing countries face resource depletion and a lack pollution control. The ESI hones in on human vulnerability to environmental stress, the functioning of ecosystems, and global stewardship and will promote a deeper international understanding of environmental management.
The UNFPA and Population Reference Bureau have jointly published the Country Profiles for Population and Reproductive Health, which contains national and subnational indicators on the demographic and social situation in 163 countries and subregions. The publication organizes by the following categories: population, socioeconomic and health conditions, adolescent reproductive health, gender equality, and reproductive health commodity security needs. It also provides data on internal disparities, highlighting differences within countries, between urban and rural areas, between the best and worst performing administrative regions, by education, and among different income groups.
From the Executive Summary: Since the 1970s the world has experienced profound changes in fertility, union formation and contraceptive demand. Fertility has declined throughout the world, early childbearing and marriage are less common and the percentage of women and men using contraception, especially modern methods, has risen.
The World Fertility Report 2009 presents a compilation of key indicators of fertility, nuptiality, contraceptive use and relevant population policies for 196 countries over the past 40 years.
1. Fertility declined worldwide to unprecedented levels between the 1970s and the first decade of the twenty-first century. Total fertility fell in all but three of the 185 countries or areas for which data are available. In the most recent period covered, 75 countries or areas had a total fertility below 2.1 children per woman, the level required to ensure the replacement of generations in low mortality populations.
2. The median level of total fertility among developing countries fell by more than half, from 5.7 children per woman in the 1970s to 2.5 children per woman in the most recent period. More than a third of all developing countries experienced fertility declines of at least 1.0 child per woman per decade during that period. Yet total fertility is below replacement level (2.1 children per woman) in 32 of 102 developing countries or areas with data available and remains above 4.0 children per woman in 10 countries or areas.
3. Fertility levels among the least developed countries remain high and have undergone only moderate decline since 1970s. Among the 39 least developed countries with data, the median total fertility declined from 6.5 children per woman in the 1970s to 5.4 children per woman in the first decade of the twenty-first century. In 2000-2007, more than two- thirds of the least developed countries still had total fertility higher than 5.0 children per woman.
4. By the first decade of the twenty-first century, none of the developed countries had total fertility above 2.1 children per woman. Total fertility was below 1.4 children per woman in about half of developed countries.
(not all points are covered. Go to the link in the headline for the complete report)
7. Increasing numbers of Governments have become dissatisfied with the fertility levels of their populations. In 1976, 53% of Governments at the world level viewed their fertility levels as being satisfactory, and by 2009 only 38% held this view. Among developed countries, an increasing proportion of Governments viewed their fertility levels as being too low: 21% in 1976 compared to 61% in 2009.
8. Age at marriage has been rising around the world.
10. Marriage is becoming less relevant for childbearing. In 62 countries with data on extramarital births the median percentage of all births that occurred out of formal (legal) marriage rose substantially, from 7.1% in the 1970s to 33.8%in the first decade of the twenty-first century.
11.The use of contraception among women aged 15 to 49 who are married or in a union increased in 90% of the 68 countries or areas with data. Among developing countries, contraceptive use increased sharply, where the median of the distribution rose from 44.6% in 1970-1979 to 64.1% in 2000-2009.
12. Despite increases in contraceptive use over time, levels of unmet need for family planning in 2000-2009 were moderate to high in developing and least developed countries. Among the 37 developing countries with data for 2000-2009, half had levels of unmet need for family planning between 7.5% and 20.2%.
Population Reference Bureau senior demographer Carl Haub has summarized data on reproductive health and maternal and child health from recently released Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) for a number of developing countries.
Large declines in womens total fertility rate (TFR) have been seen in Ethiopia and Rwanda. Rwanda's progress is the sharpest TFR decline in sub-Saharan Africa that Haub has seen. infant and child mortality are also declining dramatically in both countries, however, Ethiopia is challenged in getting health care delivery to its large rural population.
Slower fertility declines are seen in Burkina Faso, Malawi, and Senegal, but these countries are showing considerable progress in maternal and child health.
Zimbabwe has seen an increase in fertility, a rise in childhood mortality and its progress on health seems to have stagnated in recent years.
Nepal's TFR has been steadily declining and the country is on track to reaching replacement level of 2.1 children per woman. Nepal's progress in childhood mortality is lagging.
India has experienced lack of success in slowing down the birth rate. The Union Health and Family Welfare Ministry in Delhi proposed new incentives for lowering birth rates. Progress in childhood mortality is also lagging.
Vietnam's "one-to-two" children policy has resulted in a below replacement level TFR, even in rural areas.
Informative interactive graphs showing population curves over time. You can choose the country or countries to show on the graph.
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