By Ned Grossnickle
The (Madison, WI) Capital Times
December 18, 1999


Right now the world's population is increasing by the total
population of Wisconsin every 24 days, or 15 times Wisconsin's
population in one year.

On Oct. 12, according to United Nations estimates, the world's
population reached a frightening milestone: 6 billion. This is
double the 3 billion of 1960, and triple the 2 billion of 1927.

That means that in the next year, the global community needs to
find jobs for 15 times the entire population of Wisconsin -- not to
mention schools, hospitals, sewage treatment plants, landfills and
sources of clean freshwater -- just to maintain the current
standard of living.

National Geographic magazine states it well: ''Of all the issues we
face as the new millennium nears, none is more important than
population growth.''

The numbers speak for themselves. The Earth's population has
increased from 1.7 billion to 6 billion in one century.

After doubling their population in the 20th century, developed
countries will grow slowly or not at all in the next century;
growth in the 21st century will occur almost exclusively in the
developing countries least capable of caring for bulging
populations. Nineteen of every 20 births will occur there.

Some European countries, including Italy, currently have small
population decreases, but that is of little consequence.

Europe is not where the action is in world demographics, and those
that cite those numbers are ignoring over 95 percent of expected
population changes.

Understanding population momentum is central to understanding
population growth.

When a nation has an age structure composed of many children,
relatively few adults, and very few elderly, which is common, its
population will continue to grow for at least 50 years even if,
starting today, the average couple has only two children. If you
are driving 100 miles per hour and take your foot off the
accelerator, you don't suddenly stop, because of the momentum.
Population momentum is similar to that.

But how does population growth affect you? Just think about the
ever more crowded schools we have, or the increasing traffic
congestion that we get caught in, or the spreading monster of
suburban sprawl that gobbles up our open spaces and farmland.

One challenge we face is the empowerment of women. Of the 960
million illiterate adults in the world, two-thirds are women. In
poor countries, every additional year of a woman's education
results in a 5 to 10 percent decline in infant mortality, which can
result in smaller families. If a couple has seven children so three
will live past age 5, nearly all of us find that deplorable. But if
that same couple is confident their children will live, they might
choose a smaller family.

Another problem is early maternity. Children born to mothers below
age 18 are 1 1/2 times more likely to die before age 5 than those
born to mothers age 20-34. It is startling that three of every four
African women become mothers while they are in their teens, and 40
percent of births in Africa are to women under age 17.

There is a cost-sensitive solution that has proven to be effective
for these problems. The governments of developed nations, including
ours, need to increase our support of voluntary family planning
programs.

Secretary of State Madeleine Albright stated that the program
''raises the status of women, stems the flow of refugees, protects
the environment, promotes economic growth and reduces abortion.''
Such support has helped Bangladesh reduce its birthrate by
one-third since 1990, for example.

Family planning programs aren't programs that might work. They have
already been proven to work -- in a cost-effective manner in a
short period of time.

Properly funding family planning programs would require the United
States to spend $ 0.8 billion for the entire world. Compare that
with $ 2 billion to $ billion for one fighter jet.

This funding would reduce the risk of AIDS, improve the
reproductive health of many millions of people, and help stabilize
the population of the world at a level that would allow a higher
quality of life for all of us. For the sake of your children and
the world's children, for peace, health, economic development in
poor countries, and a better, more livable planet, please contact
Congress and support international and domestic family planning.

--Ned Grossnickle is Wisconsin state chair of the Sierra Club
Population Committee.--