World Population Awareness

One Billion People Forgotten in the Global Fight Against Poverty: UNICEF Report Reveals How Adolescents Have Been Marginalized

This year's UNICEF's State of the World's Children report focuses on adolescents. There are, in the world, 1.2 billion 10- to 19-year-olds, who are pivotal in global efforts to reach the UN millennium development goals targets by 2015.

Adolescents are often marginalized in development budgets and programs, which, if not corrected, investment in global poverty, health, education and employment goals will be compromised.

As babies or young children when the MDGs were established in 2000, many adolescents will have been the direct beneficiaries of the big global gains in child survival, primary education, access to safe water and sanitation. Infant mortality has dropped 33% in 11 years.

But this investment and support will taper off because development programs are not sufficiently making the link between an investment in early childhood and the need to consolidate these gains into early adulthood.

While millions of children have been vaccinated against dangerous diseases, a third of all new HIV cases worldwide involve 15- to 24-year-olds. In Brazil, 26,000 children under the age of one were saved between 1998-2008, but in that decade 81,000 teenagers were murdered.

Adolescence is the time when young people are at the highest risk of dangers such as child marriage, forced labour and commercial sexual exploitation. But child protection resources and assistance will not reach them.

Adolescence is the pivotal decade where poverty and inequality pass on to the next generation, and this is especially true when poor adolescent girls who become mothers.

Almost half the world's adolescents do not attend secondary school. Girls are still far less likely to attend secondary education than boys. Educated adolescent girls are less likely to marry early or get pregnant, and have a better knowledge of HIV/Aids and health issues.

Adolescence is also a time when other cultural forms of gender discrimination come into play, and is the best time to confront and challenge institutionalised attitudes and behaviours. In some countries younger girls are more likely to excuse violence as older women.

In a world that is gripped by social and political insecurity, spiralling food prices and rising unemployment, a stronger focus on adolescents is crucial.

81 million young people are unemployed and 15- to 24-year-olds make up one-quarter of the world's working poor. This will have a significant impact on future economic recovery and growth.

According to the International Labour Organisation (ILO), more than 20% of international companies consider inadequate education of the potential workforce to be a significant obstacle to higher investment and faster economic recovery.

While the Mid East is a "star performer" in terms of development indicators such as health and education, unemployment among 15- to 24-year-olds stands at over 25%. With two-thirds of the region's population now below 24, young people are not being absorbed into the economy and employers are complaining of poor education and low skills.

Youth unemployment and a lack of political voice are not included in prominent measures of development.

The global fight against poverty, inequality and discrimination will be compromised if this doesn't change.

Street Children

Street children may be found on every inhabited continent in a large majority of the world's cities. The following estimates indicate the global extent of street child populations.

* India 11 million

* Egypt 1.5 million

* Pakistan 1.5 million

* U.S. 750,000 - 1 million

* Kenya 250,000 - 300,000

* Philippines 250,000

* Congo 250,000

* Morocco 30,000

* Brazil 25,000

* Germany 20,000

* Honduras 20,000

* Jamaica 6,500

* Uruguay 3,000

Condition of Adolescents in India Among the Worst

Twenty per cent of the world's adolescent population live in India, which has one of the worst track records in health and education, according to UNCIEF in its 'State of the World's Children' report.

47% of girls from 11 to 19 are underweight. 56% of girls and 30% of boys in the same age group are anaemic which places the country along with the least developed African nations.

This same age group comprises 25% (243 million) of India's population. Almost 40% of the section is out of school and 43% get married before the age of 18, out of whom 13% become teenage mothers.

86% of those 11-13 and 64% of 14-17 year olds attend school.

Fortunately the number of girls getting married before the age of 18 years has decreased from 54% in 1992-93. But the figure is the eight highest in the world and Pakistan fares much better with just 25% of girls getting married before the age of 18 years.

6,000 adolescent mothers die every year and there is a 50% higher risk of infant deaths among mothers who are under 20 years.

Correct knowledge of HIV/AIDS is held by 35% of adolescents boys and 28% of girls.

One-third of adolescents report physical abuse and and the same number report sexual abuse.

A representative said "health and reproductive services and knowledge" must be provided to every person in this age group.

U.S.: Congress Debates Legislation to Prevent Child Marriage

In July the Human Rights Commission held a hearing on child marriage where Melanne Verveer, the Ambassador-at-Large for Global Women's Issues urged Congress to pass the International Protecting Girls by Preventing Child Marriage Act (H.R. 2103 S. 987).

If passed, the State Department would be required to come up with a multi-year strategy to prevent child marriage and promote the empowerment of young girls who are at risk of child marriage.

Child marriage is a recognized violation of human rights, an average of 25,000 girls a day become child brides, and unless something is done to change this trend within the next 10 years, over 100 million girls in the developing world will become child brides.

Child marriage is a concern in 64 of the 182 countries that were surveyed. It is most common in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. These girls are often prevented from continuing their education and frequently become pregnant before they are physically capable of having a safe pregnancy. Child brides also face a significantly greater risk of domestic violence and HIV infection. Because of their unequal ages and social status, child brides are frequently unable to negotiate with their husbands about sex, contraception, and birth spacing. They often encounter difficulties in finding employment outside the home because schooling is interrupted.

The children of child brides are also victims. Their mothers often die early, or suffer life- threatening illnesses, due to pregnancy-related causes. Children born to child brides also have higher rates of low birth weights, infant mortality, and premature birth than those of children born to older mothers.

The Population Institute has sent letters to both the House Committee on Foreign Affairs and the Senate Foreign Relations Committee urging them to take action on the legislation. rw

Children in Poor Countries Need Help

2.2 billion of the world's people are under 18 years old, with 2 billion from developing countries, according to UN University Vice Rector Ramesh Thakur and UNICEF Japan Director Manzoor Ahmed. 30,500 children under 5 years old die every day of preventable diseases such as diarrhea, pneumonia and malnutrition.

Every month, 50,000 children under 15 are infected with AIDS. Of all children in developing countries, 20% of those ages 5 to 15 are engaged in child labor in hazardous and harmful conditions, 30% under 5 are underweight, nearly 40% suffer from stunted growth, and over 50% are malnourished. Foreign aid dropped to a historic low in 1998 of 0.2% of the GPD of the OECD countries, well below the internationally agreed target of 0.7%. Ironically, income jumped and aid declined by 30% from 1992 to 1997. More children today live in poverty than 10 years ago, and more children find themselves in a more violent and unstable environment

Remittances, and the Recession's Effects on International Migration

The number of international migrants almost doubled between 1985 and 2010. Today, around 3% of the people in the world have lived outside their country of birth for a year or more.

Two-thirds of these, or 2% of migrants, are from developing countries. The remittances that these migrants send back home amounts to about $325 billion - larger than total official development aid, and almost as much as foreign direct investment. The Philippines, for example is home to over 1 million people working abroad, who send remittances equivalent to 10% of the country's economic output. Countries like this hope that sending workers abroad can reduce poverty and catapult them into the ranks of developed countries.

While the the 2008-2009 recession slowed migration into developed countries, not many returned. Remittances have remained resilient compared to private capital flows during the economic crisis.

Migrants usually move to nearby countries, as from Mexico to the United States or from Turkey to Germany. The largest flow of migrants, 74 million, is from one developing country to another, as from the Philippines to Saudi Arabia or from Nicaragua to Costa Rica. The second-largest flow, 73 million, is from developing to developed countries, which include most of Europe, North America, Japan, and Australia and New Zealand. Some 55 million people moved from one developed country to another, as from Canada to the United States, and 13 million moved from developed to developing countries, as with Japanese who work or retire in Thailand.

Migrants make up 10% of developed country residents. The U.S. has the most migrants, with 43 million migrants in 2010, followed by Russia (12 million), Germany (11 million), and Saudi Arabia, Canada, and France. These six countries included 40% of the total.

Gulf oil exporters have the largest share of migrants, such as Qatar with over 85% of the population as migrants; the UAE and Kuwait have 70% migrants.

Because of demographic and economic inequalities and with easier communications and cheaper transportation, international migration is likely to increase.

While remittances reduce poverty for families who receive them and can benefit workers who do not migrate, receiving remittances cannot alone generate development.

Migration across national borders is sometimes called the "third wave" of globalization, after the movement of goods (trade) and money (finance). Some groups of nations, notably the European Union, have added free movement of labor to free flows of goods and capital.

160 governments participate in The Global Forum on Migration and Development (GFMD). Most GFMD governments consider international migration inevitable and desirable; many governments ask why their richer neighbors do not simply open doors wider to the migrants that they are likely to need as their populations age and shrink. Migrant-receiving governments, on the other hand, point to high unemployment rates for the migrants within their borders and public opinion polls that show most residents want to reduce immigration. Destination countries often try to manage migration by restricting the rights of migrants.

Managing international migration in ways that protect migrants and contribute to development in both countries of origin and destination is an increasing global challenge.

The Fake Environmentalists and Their Pretend-Game

Regional planners, under the direction of their political overlords---the proxies of developers - are trying to shove tens of thousands more people into the North Vancouver Island region. And they don't want people to grasp the full implications of their devious plans. What is transpiring here is transpiring across Canada and the continent of North America--and elsewhere. New subdivisions are sprouting up all over the map in place of greenbelts, woodlands and marshes and the people have little say in the matter.

The most frustrating thing is that fake environmentalists are able to pose as resisting this imposition. But their issue is not with population growth, but with "sprawl"---even though at least half of sprawl is driven by population growth and not by poor land-use planning. They want to 'manage' growth and steer it away from farmland, while packing the unending stream of newcomers into tighter and denser lots alongside existing residents, who are encouraged to surrender their living space in the interests of food security and the environment.

Thus people are presented with a false antithesis. Either accept growth with sprawl or so-called 'smart' growth without it. The local NDP (New Democratic Party), Greens and environmentalists tell people that population growth is something not in their jurisdiction, that immigration (or child benefits) policy is a federal matter and that nothing can prevent inter-provincial migration as guaranteed under the Charter of Rights and Freedoms. In other words, growth out of their hands.

Yet which political parties receive top marks from the Sierra Club? The federal Greens and the federal NDP. And what is their immigration policy? To increase the absurdly high immigration intake quota of the Harper Government by 25%, while matching or besting its pro-natalist programs.

This is the pretend-game that environmental NGOs play. Either population growth is not controllable, or even if it is, they have nothing to do with it--- and in any case, it has little bearing on environmental degradation, whether farmland or species loss, or GHG emissions. "It's not whether we grow", they argue, "but how we grow". Just squeeze tighter in the sardine can so that incoming migrants can snuggle up to you. And above all, feel guilty about having extra space in the backyard for your son to play in or a nature trail at the end of your block to take your dog. If it is nature that you want, well, you can get that on the Outdoor Living Channel, can't you?

Let me confess that, whether it is the white-flight "Freedom 55s" from Alberta or California, or people from across the world, I've never felt lonely enough to want them living under my nose, and neither do most of us who chose our 'low-density" lifestyle. Some may call that selfish, I call it a human right. Is it my demand for space that is unreasonable, or the demand that I accept as reasonable a human population level that is 250% higher now than when I was born? Why are we being forced to accept population growth? Because population growth is thought to be a necessary agent of economic growth, our Great God.

The myth that continued economic growth is necessary, desirable, inevitable or even possible remains our major stumbling block, the first domino of misconceptions that must fall before we can reclaim any semblance of the quality of life that we once enjoyed. We are in a foot race with Mother Nature. If we don't stop growth, she will stop us. Time is almost up. Don't let the Pied Pipers of Fake Environmentalism lead you down a futile path. Fight growth, not the symptoms of growth. rw

U.S.: AP Investigation: Banks Sought Foreign Workers

Major U.S. banks sought permission to bring thousands of foreign workers into the country for high-paying jobs. The dozen banks receiving the biggest rescue packages, more than $150 billion, requested visas for more than 21,800 foreign workers over the past six years. The average annual salary for those jobs was $90,721. As the economic collapse worsened the numbers of visas sought by the dozen banks in AP's analysis increased from 3,258 in 2007, to 4,163 in 2008.

The H-1B visa program allows temporary employment of foreign workers in specialized-skill and advanced-degree positions. The government only grants 85,000 such visas each year among all U.S. employers.

Foreigners are paid less than American workers.

Companies can use the lower end of government wage scales even for highly skilled workers, a legal mechanisms to underpay the workers. Beyond seeking approval for visas from the government, banks that accepted federal bailout money also enlisted uncounted foreign workers. Senators Grassley, and Durbin, are pushing for legislation to make employers recruit American workers first. The issue takes on a higher profile as President Obama pushes for massive government spending to create jobs nationwide. rw

Interview with Jason Bremner on Environmental Change: What Are the Links with Migration?

This is a long article with many more questions left unanswered than answered. Following are the points that seemed to be more certain than the rest:

U.S.: Immigration Affects Environment, Too, Reports E -the Environmental Magazine; But Solutions go Deeper than Building Fences

Immigration has become a hot issue, but often for the wrong reasons. What's missing is frank discussion of its impact on overall population growth, the environment and on how to address its fundamental causes.

Largely because of immigration, the U.S. Census estimates that from 303 million today we'll grow to 400 million people as early as 2040, and 420 million by 2050. The U.S. is growing so fast it now has the third largest population in the world.

America is a nation of immigrants. We absorbed 25 million people between 1860 and 1920, and most observers believe we are a stronger nation because of it.

America's rapid population growth makes it nearly impossible to achieve sustainability. About 93% of U.S. increases in energy use since 1970 can be attributed to population growth. We pave over an area the size of Delaware every year, and every day we remove 3.2 billion gallons of water from aquifers that are not replenished by natural processes.

The energy and climate effects are little understood. Any efficiency gains we make are being swamped by rapid population increases.

With just 5% of the world's population, the U.S. is the top consumer of 11 of the world's top 20 traded commodities. The increase in greenhouse gas emissions in the U.S., which rose 13 between 1990 and 2000, mirrors the population increase. A huge percentage of climate emissions can be attributed to population growth.

Many people want to come to America from the overpopulated developing world. The swelling numbers abroad create pressures leading to "increased poverty, hunger, land degradation, a lack of health services and limited social and economic mobility."

How do we address these pressures without calling for the mandatory caps on U.S. immigration? The organization Population Connection wants to combine action at home (reducing teen pregnancy, ensuring contraceptive availability, defending reproductive rights) with foreign aid. If people see hope for better lives at home, they will feel less pressure to emigrate.

Such views have many supporters. If we and the governments of the countries they are coming from were to devote as much to improving their standard of living at home, they might not feel the need to come to America.

The obstacle is to get countries around the world to focus on eradicating hunger, infant mortality and poverty, and limiting births through universal access to family planning. A 20-year plan to address these issues has languished as donor countries, including the U.S., have fallen short of meeting their financial commitments.

In addition, the reinstatement of the "Global Gag Rule" which mandates that no U.S. family planning assistance be provided to foreign organizations that use funding to make abortion available, has had a severe impact. Cultural and religious opposition have also combined to thwart efforts.

Nevertheless, UNFPA, says that the process offers the best hope for reducing migration pressures. The growing poverty and demographic divide between rich and poor countries must be addressed. rw

CIA Chief Sees Unrest Rising with Population

Swelling populations and immigration will present new security challenges for the US by straining resources and stoking extremism and civil unrest in distant corners of the globe. The population surge could undermine the stability of some of the world's most fragile states, especially in Africa, while in the West, governments will be forced to grapple with larger immigrant communities and deepening divisions over ethnicity and race.

The projected 33% growth in global population over the next 40 years as one of three significant trends that will alter the security landscape in the current century. Most of that growth will occur in countries least able to sustain it. With the population of countries like Niger and Liberia projected to triple in size in 40 years, governments will be forced to find food, shelter and jobs for millions, or deal with restive populations. European countries will see particular growth in their Muslim populations while the number of non-Muslims will shrink as birthrates fall.

The CIA director predicted a widening gulf between Europe and North America on how to deal with security threats. The US sees the fight against terrorism as a global war, European nations perceive the terrorist threat as a law enforcement problem. A third security trend was the emergence of China as a global powerhouse, pursuing its narrow strategic and political interests. If Beijing begins to accept greater responsibility for the health of the international system, as all global powers should, we will remain on a constructive, even if competitive, path. rw

India;: Sustainable Growth

By 2050, some 6 billion people will be living in towns and cities. Never before has the world witnessed such rapid urbanization nor such a swift rise in the numbers of people migrating.

Migration and urban growth are linked, because the majority of people on the move do so for economic reasons. And when these movements towards the growth centers intensify, such towns and cities can also be places of great misery.

Here, the foremost concern is the infrastructure, which stems from the excessive size of most of the urban areas beyond its holding capacity. This is leading to overcrowding, traffic congestion, lack of adequate housing, mushrooming of slums and settlements, lack of civic amenities, disease and squalor.

Surrounding green belts are slowly being devoured by concrete jungles and pollution. Further the psycho-social malignancies arising from the pressures of living in a survival of the fittest scenario, exacerbated by the loss of traditional social support systems, manifest in the high crime rates, psychotic disorders and racial and social tensions.

Appropriate policy must be put in place so that there can be a balance between the economic rationale for growth and sustainability. As a result of the non-availability of amenities and employment opportunities, the government policy should focus on ensuring that urban centers are well planned to absorb further growth while encouraging other growth centers to develop.

One long term solution is on improvement of rural infrastructure, the neglect of which accentuates the urban exodus. Municipal authorities have to keep pace with city growth.

Policy makers need to wake up or the process of urbanization will become insurmountable. A holistic approach to urban and peripheral area planning with a long greater stress on rural development which will obviate the need for people to migrate to urban areas.

The Central government has allocated huge funds including the urban infrastructure Development Scheme for Small & Medium Towns, which aims at improvement in a planned manner. For all this to materialize the State government and the concerned departments must ensure that funds are utilized properly. rw

China's Urban Population Exceeds Countryside for First Time

Today in China, 690.79 million people live in urban areas, compared with 656.56 million in the countryside, the 2011 report of China's National Bureau of Statistics said. Three decades of economic development has encouraged farmers to seek better living standards in towns and cities. The number of people in China's urban areas is twice the the total U.S. population.

Capitalist reforms in the late 1970s have taken more than 200 million people out of poverty, fueled a more than 90-fold increase in the economy since 1979, and transformed the nation into the world's second-largest economy and its biggest consumer of steel, copper and coal.

Chang Jian, an economist at Barclays Capital in Hong Kong said "Urbanization in China still has a long way to go, maybe for another 20 years."

Nobel economics laureate Joseph E. Stiglitz has cited urbanization in China, along with technology developments in the U.S., as the two most important issues that will shape the world's development during the 21st century.

China's urbanization has already benefited companies such as excavators makers Caterpillar Inc. and Komatsu Ltd., and iron ore miners BHP Billiton Ltd. and Rio Tinto Plc. Changing consumer tastes and growing wealth have also fueled demand for products sold by Apple Inc., General Motors Co. and Yum! Brands Inc.

China's city dwellers have 3 times the income of rural residents. Per capita urban disposable income increased 8.4% last year while per capita cash income increased 11.4% for rural people. Disposable income statistics for rural residents because much of their annual earnings aren't in cash, such as food they grow themselves. Rural income also grew faster than urban in come in 2010.

As the nation's urban population surges, China now faces the challenge of providing jobs, welfare and other social services to its city dwellers.

Papua New Guinea: Population Growth Fuels Conflict

Papua New Guinea (PNG) already has a history of clan violence and clashes over land, but "rapid population growth is adding to the risk of conflict," said Max Kep, director of the PNG's national Office of Urbanization, noting that various types of conflict are fuelled by limited resources, fighting over smaller plots of land and clashes between swelling urban areas are clashing with nearby owners of traditional land.

PNG's population is nearly seven million, comprised of nearly 700 ethnic groups speaking some 800 languages. 40 percent of PNG's population is under 15 and nearly half are under 20.

The country's population has more than tripled over the last 30 years and is expected to double in another 25 years. The average total fertility rate of 4.4 births per woman remains one of the highest in the Pacific region, says the UN.

"It's like having wild grass lying around waiting to be struck by lightning for a brushfire," said Helen Ware, a professor at the University of New England in Australia, noting the risk of so many idle, underemployed men.

Migrants - drawn to towns and cities for jobs and services - are fuelling population growth in urban areas, which are now growing at an average of 4.5-5% a year.

Around 97% of the country's land is reserved for traditional land owners who are often unwilling to release land for urban growth, so PNG's cities have nowhere to expand, according to the UN Human Settlements Programme (UN-HABITAT). The city of Goroka, for example, is facing critical land shortages which have caused rapid and informal urbanization.

Kep said a government initiative to encourage landowners to lease their land to municipalities is aimed at empowering them, with increased income and access to government services.

Many young people migrate to urban areas, but there are few job opportunities when they arrive, so they often turn to crime.

In addtion, in rural areas, "Villages which once were separated are now bordering one another, and conflicts are definitely arising through competition for resources," said Chris Turner, from Marie Stopes International, an NGO providing family planning and reproductive services in PNG.

In and around Goroka, fighting between families is also turning violent. One woman told of her family of five siblings, and more than 15 offspring arguing over smaller and smaller pieces of property.

Mega Cities Could Trigger Water Shortages and Social Unrest

And by 2050, about 70% of the world's population (estimated to be 9.1 billion in 2050) will live in urban areas, predicts the World Wildlife Fund (WWF). Due to massive urban growth, there has already been a breakdown in basic services, including water supplies and sanitation facilities, in several of the world's "mega" cities.

In most developing countries, urban growth, slum expansion, and poverty go hand-in-hand, with nearly one third of the world's urban dwellers living in slums in 2000, the number is climbing.

In Karachi Pakistan, with around 18 million people, 30,000 die due to the effects of contaminated drinking water.

In Kolkata, India, with 15.4 million people, there are both traces of faeces in drinking water and high concentrations of arsenic in ground water.

Shanghai China, at 23 million, is now facing water shortages and problems related to salinization.

The rivers of Buenos Aires, Argentina, with 12.8 million people, are described as "public cesspits", and contain high levels of dumped toxins. Millions of people in the city lack safe access to drinking water and are not connected to sewer systems.

Nairobi, Kenya, with 3.5 million, lacks capacity to manage the increasing demand for water and 60% of Nairobi's inhabitants live in informal settlements with inadequate access to quality water and are forced to buy their water at kiosks at a higher price.

In Mexico City, Mexico, at 21.1 million people, excessive overuse of groundwater has led to the sinking of the city over time by five to 10 centimetres.

Anna Forslund, WWF's fresh water expert based in Sweden, said: "We need better urban planning, efficient water use, and increased input from civil society."

Rapid Urbanization Affects Public Health

In China more than an estimated 100 million people have moved from the countryside to rapidly expanding urban centers in the country during the past 20 years. This rapid urbanization has significant repercussions on migrants' health.

Changes in diet and physical exertion, increasing obesity in society and heightening the risk of type II diabetes and cardiovascular diseases occur with urbanization.

Poverty, vulnerability to sexual abuse and exploitation, hazardous working conditions and separation from social support networks are additional mobility-related risks among migrants, many affecting women, children and the elderly.

Migrants may be young and healthy on their arrival in cities, but poor living conditions and overcrowded houses and neighborhoods increase the incidence of diseases such as malaria, typhoid and respiratory ailments. Lately the problem of rising TB infection has been compounded by delayed diagnosis and inadequate care.

Migrants show high rates of sexually transmitted diseases, including HIV/AIDS and tend to spread the virus when they return to rural areas, where health facilities are not as well equipped to deal with the infection as they are in cities.

Many migrants lack knowledge of how to use existing health services and have insufficient money to pay a hospital for treatment.

Many migrant women work in industries where they come in contact with environmental contaminants that are dangerous to their reproductive system, especially if they are pregnant.

Toxic substances in the environment increase the risk of abortion, birth defects, fetal growth and neo-natal death.

Newborns are especially vulnerable to disease if they grow up in overcrowded places and are subjected to poor hygiene, excessive noise and lack of space for recreation and study. They suffer not only from a hostile physical environment, but also from stress and other factors such as violence that such environments create.

Many children are left at home by migrants, in many cases in the care of grandparents. Adolescents of migrant parents tend to have a less healthy diet, become overweight and are more prone to smoking and drinking alcohol, often explained by the lack of parental control.

For the poor in the cities, drinking water supply, housing, solid waste disposal, transportation and healthcare are either deficient or non-existent. Instead they get an extra dose of environmental pollution, because many industries tend to cluster in outlying areas where regulations are comparatively lax. Unemployment, poverty and crowded living conditions contribute to violence, substance abuse and mental illness.

Motor vehicles are a big source of air pollution, having a serious impact on health, plus they cause pedestrian injuries and fatalities.

Crowded urban neighborhoods, combined with poor sanitary conditions and inadequate waste removal, create conditions for the spread of infectious diseases such as pneumonia, TB and cholera. Inadequate sanitation is an important risk factor for diarrheal and parasitic diseases.

Given the serious effects that urbanization can have on health, it is essential to include health considerations into policymaking. Since the poor and migrants suffer many of the negative effects more acutely, it is important to assess their needs properly. More efforts should be made to devise prevention policies in industries where migrants are concentrated.

Cities are magnets that attract migrants for the opportunities they offer but they must provide a safe and stable environment for people to prosper.

Africa's Urbanization Outpaces Capacity to Provide Water, Sanitation - UN Report

Africa is the fastest urbanizing continent on the planet, and 40% of its one billion people live in urban areas, 60% of them in slums where water supply and sanitation are severely inadequate.

The UN Environment Programme (UNEP) and the UN Human Settlements Programme (UN-HABITAT) report that Africa's urban population without access to safe drinking water rose from close to 30 million in 1990 to more that 55 million in 2008, and the same period, the number of people without reasonable sanitation services doubled to around 175 million.

Achim Steiner, UNEP Executive Director spoke of the upcoming 2012 UN Conference on Sustainable Development, where one the themes will be "green economy" in the context of sustainable development and poverty eradication.

"There is growing evidence from work on the Green Economy that a different path in terms of water and sanitation can begin to be realized. Indeed, public policies that re-direct over a tenth of a per cent of global GDP per year can assist in not only addressing the sanitation challenge but conserve freshwater by reducing water demand by a fifth over the coming decades compared to projected trends," he said.

Cities in the continent where high urbanization rates are not matched with adequate water and sanitation infrastructure are Addis Ababa, the Ethiopian capital, Grahamstown in South Africa, and the Kenyan capital, Nairobi.

Mega-Cities Expected to Have the Fastest Growing Economies

A recent study by Citigroup forecasts that mega-cities like London, Chicago, Tokyo, New York, Los Angeles, Hong Kong, Sao Paulo, Mexico City, Shanghai, Buenos Aires, Mumbai and Moscow are expected to have the fastest growing economies by the middle of the next decade.

However, risks are concentrated in big cities that are in earthquake and flood zones. Climate change may intensify these risks. Eight to 10 major cities around the world are under continuous threat of earthquake, including Istanbul in Turkey.

Key issues for dense cities over the coming years will include sustainable development, transport and energy use. Expertise in building and planning resilient cities must also be developed.

With the price of oil going up cities need to become more efficient in terms of transport infrastructure and investment in public transport.

Facing Limits: Jobs

Regardless of whether the majority of the world's adults want to work or not in order to gain an income and have job satisfaction, the world cannot support full-time jobs for everyone because many jobs are based on ravaging the natural world to turn living things into dead products (i.e., forests into cardboard boxes and other packaging materials, disposable newspapers and chopsticks, etc.), and we have too many people to maintain such behaviors on the scale needed. Simultaneously the conversion of life into products is destroying habitats for forest residents (including indigenous tribes) and many species in other environments so that they die off at a high rate.

How the U.S. is Becoming a 3rd World Country - Part 1

The U.S. is experiencing high unemployment, lack of economic opportunity, low wages, widespread poverty, extreme concentration of wealth, unsustainable government debt, control of the government by international banks and multinational corporations, weak rule of law and counterproductive government policies -- all fundamental characteristics that define a 3rd world country.

While other factors such as public health, nutrition, and infrastructure rank the U.S. above 3rd world countries, they are below European standards, and will rapidly deteriorate in a declining economy.

The evidence suggests that, without fundamental reforms, the U.S. will become a post industrial neo-3rd-world country by 2032.

Offshoring of manufacturing, outsourcing of jobs and deindustrialization are aspects of globalization, shoving the U.S. labor market into a long-term downward trend. The U.S. workforce has declined by approximately 6.5% since its year 2000 peak to roughly 58.2% of working age adults and the U.S. now suffers chronic unemployment of 9.1%. Although the workforce grew in the 1980s and 1990s, as dual income families became the norm, the size of the workforce is shrinking due to a lack of economic opportunity.

Before the Clinton administration, unemployment measures included workers who are now no longer counted as part of the workforce. Thus, while the official long-term unemployment is 16.5%, using pre-Clinton measurements, unemployment exceeds 22%, only 3% below the worst point (24.9%) of the Great Depression, and not far from Armenia at 28.6%, Algeria at 27.3% and the West Bank and the Gaza Strip both at 25.7%. The highest unemployment for countries with over 2 million population is Macedonia with 33.8% unemployment.

Young Americans are being left behind in terms of economic opportunity. Student loans exceed $1 trillion while the labor force participation rate for those aged 16 to 29 who are working or looking for work fell to 48.8% in 2011, the lowest level ever recorded. The fact of millions of unemployed college graduates and lack of economic opportunity for other young Americans, is a political wildcard reminiscent of countries like Tunisia.

American workers cannot yet directly compete for jobs with workers in countries like China and India. In China, for example, gross pay, in terms of purchasing power parity, is equivalent to approximately $514 per month, 57% below the U.S. poverty line. According to the Economic Policy Institute, the U.S. trade deficit with China alone caused a loss of 2.8 million U.S. jobs since 2001.

The cost of living is rising faster than wages, leaving Americans who earn more dollars poorer in terms of purchasing power. If household income is adjusted for inflation, most American families have grown significantly poorer over the past ten years. While wages have risen slightly, when adjusted for inflation, the wages of most Americans have not kept up with the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Also, according to economist John Williams of Shadow Government Statistics, CPI systematically understates inflation.

Prices rise when the money supply is increased faster than population or sustainable economic activity. Apparent economic growth created through credit expansion, i.e., by increasing the money supply, has a temporary stimulative effect but also causes prices to rise.

The decline in real household income has set Americans back to 1996 levels, despite many households now having two incomes rather than one. The poverty rate in the United States rose to 15.7% in 2011, having risen sharply since 2006 and continues to climb. The U.S. Department of Agriculture's Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), commonly known as "food stamps," now feeds 1 in 8 Americans and nearly 1 in 4 children.

The household income and wealth of the wealthiest Americans has increased sharply, despite the overall deterioration of the U.S. economy.

Alan Greenspan, former Chairman of the Federal Reserve, warned that concentration of wealth undermines the consumer base of the economy, causing GDP to decline and resulting in unemployment, which reduces living standards.

Economic data from several sources, including the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), show that wealth and income in the United States have become increasingly concentrated with the wealthiest 1% of Americans owning 38.2% of stock market assets, e.g., shares of businesses. For the wealthiest 1% of Americans, household income tripled between 1979 and 2007 and has continued to increase while household wealth in the United States has fallen by $7.7 trillion.

The Gini Coefficient, a measurement of disparity in income distribution, the United States is now at parity with China and will soon overtake Mexico, a still developing country. Even though the U.S. remains a far wealthier country overall, if the current trend continues the U.S. will resemble a 3rd world country, in terms of the disparity in income distribution, in approximately two decades, i.e., by 2032.

The Main Threat to the Economy of Tajikistan in 2011

Tajikistan is a war-ravaged Central Asian country that is the poorest of the CIS states. Over the last 10 years the population grew from 5.5 million to 6.25 million while the domestic product decreased from 4 billion 615 million to 1 billion 900 million Somoni (approximately 674 million dollars). 74.4% of the population are rural dwellers, which is growing faster than the urban population. The population is forecast to reach 8 million by 2020, according to President Rakhmonov.

In June 2010 the Parliament of Tajikistan adopted the "Law on Reproductive Health", which includes a number of measures to control fertility.

According to various international organizations, 2 million Tajiks are starving. 80% of the population lives below the poverty line. In rural areas industry has collapsed and there is lack of demand for labor.

During the years of independence, agriculture in Tajikistan was degraded and the country almost completely lost the culture of farming. In addition, in recent years have sharply deteriorated, and weather conditions are constant heavy rain, hail and floods, locust invasion.

However rainfall in the mountains over last fall and winter was only 5 to 15% of average annual norms. The current lack of rainfall is like the winter of 2001, when Tajikistan was faced with severe drought, which caused damage to the economy hundreds of millions of dollars. Some experts are already saying that harvest thousands of hectares of rain-fed (no irrigation) fields in Tajikistan in autumn sown winter wheat are irretrievably lost.

The irrigation system in the country, established during the Soviet Union did not receive funding and has been virtually destroyed.

Tajikistan now exports most of its grain from Kazakhstan and Russia. Increase in exports may lead to depletion of foreign reserves in Tajikistan.

Many of the country's able-bodied male population are leaving the country because of the failure of agriculture.The fields of the republic are run by women and children. Over 90% of Tajik migrants are currently in Russia and their number could reach 2 million.

Corruption is keeping grants from international financial organizations and donor countries, dedicated to improving the efficiency of agriculture, from being used for their original purpose.

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U.S.: Time to Get Real: Demographics is a Bigger Problem Than Health Care Costs

The rapid growth of per capita health spending in the U.S. needs to be addressed. However the aging of the population is the primary driver of our federal budget problems over the next 30-40 years.

America is rapidly aging, due to two factors: people are living longer and the Baby boomers.

People living longer means that people will be collecting benefits for more years. That's good for older people and expensive for the government.

The Baby Boom is due to fertility rates surging after World War II from about 2.2 in 1946 to 3.6 babies per woman in 1960. These rates went down from there to 2.0, where it is predicted to stay.

The first cohort of Baby Boomers started collecting their checks at age 62 in 2008.

Current workers pay, by way of payroll taxes, for the Social Security and Medicare benefits of current retirees. In 1950, there were 16 workers paying payroll taxes for each retiree collecting Social Security benefits. Today, there the number is 3.3 workers, In the future there will be only 2.

[A recent analysis showed that, to maintain the SS and Medicare systems at projected costs, a 45% payroll tax would be necessary, or 60% to include other projected federal expenditures.]

U.S.: Why the Unemployment Rate Will Stay High for Years to Come

America's unemployment currently stands at 9.6%. The San Francisco Fed released a report which shows why the rate will not be coming down for years to come. The number of jobs that need to be created each month in order to reduce the unemployment rate is far above the current rate of job growth.

1. To keep the unemployment rate steady at 9.6%, the US economy needs to create 100,000 jobs per month. This assumes average population growth of 1% and a flat labor force participation rate.

2. According to the Congressional Budget Office, the US economy needs to create 227,000 jobs per month. This assumption is based upon a projected uptick in the labor force participation rate to 64.8%. If the CBO is off by only 0.1%, the number jumps 10,000 to 237,000 jobs per month required.

3. The Social Security Administration expects the labor force participation rate to fall to 64.6% in 2012. This means that starting September 2010, the US has to create 208,000 jobs per month to reach the 8% unemployment rate goal.

4. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is predicting a labor force participation rate of 65.5% in 2012. Under this assumption the US economy has to create a whopping 294,000 jobs per month.

5. In August 2010 the US private sector created 67,000 jobs, far below the rate necessary to reduce the unemployment rate. During the last "jobless recovery," when economic conditions were much more favorable job creation averaged 140,000 jobs per month.

Don't expect the unemployment rate to come down anytime soon. If anything, it might tick up in 2011. rw

As Economy in Silicon Valley Slides, Birth Control Booms

With the ranks of the uninsured increasing along with unemployment rates, many women are taking steps to avoid having a child.

Among gynecologists and family-planning clinics throughout the South Bay, there have been more birth-control consultations since the fall, and women are asking for more reliable, more permanent methods of contraception.

"They want to focus their finances on the one or two kids that they have," said an OB-GYN. "Instead of going with condoms or birth-control pills, they want longer-term solutions like the intrauterine device." IUDs have a lower failure rate than birth-control pills and condoms, according to the CDC.

A national Gallup poll revealed that 20% of women surveyed were more concerned about an unintended pregnancy during the bad economy, and 19% were more conscientious about using birth control.

In the years straddling the market crash of the Great Depression, birthrates plummeted almost 30%. Rates peaked after World War II, then took another nose-dive following the recession of the early 1970s.

Even lower-income women are filling the rooms of in a Planned Parenthood clinic East San Jose.

Planned Parenthood Mar Monte, which runs 33 clinics in Northern California, including the South Bay region, sees between 40,000 and 50,000 patients every month. Last December clinics had 25% visits than the previous year, and in March, it was 16% more, with the bulk of patients coming in for birth-control consultations, refills and infection screenings and treatment. Local abortion rates went down during the same time period.

One woman who opted for an IUD said she wanted a more reliable method since her boyfriend started having trouble finding painting and construction jobs. They can hardly pay the rent on their one-bedroom apartment, and as their public benefits run out, they're struggling with the four kids they have. "I tried the injection and I got pregnant, I tried the pill and I got pregnant. I needed something safer."

Some women use permanent sterilization, such as the outpatient procedure of placing titanium coils in the fallopian tubes.

Sometimes it is more than the money. For Indian immigrant women on H-1B visas that require them to be actively employed, losing a job can mean leaving the country.

Paying for the birth control itself is usually a challenge for low income women. California's Family Planning, Access, Care and Treatment program, which provides free contraception and reproductive-health services to low-income Californians of childbearing age, received 5,000 more claims in 2008 for services than in 2007. Latinos make up the majority of enrollees in the program at 65% statewide.

With the proposed up to $36 million in cuts to family-planning programs in the state budget, there is much to fear. The federal government matches every $1 the state spends on family planning with $9, so even more is at stake.

Men are also undergoing more vasectomies to cushion their families against hard times.

Uganda;: Monitor Wins Population Award

Prof. Ssemakula Kiwanuka has said Uganda needs more investment with its fast growing population which stands at 28.2 million.

We need to equip our children with education and skills and provide them with jobs so that they are gainfully employed and take advantage of our rapidly growing population to become an effective market in the great lakes region.

Rapid population growth has implications on the environment, food security and sustainable economic development. rw

Nagorno-Karabakh: The National Womb

Nagorno-Karabakh is a disputed region in the southern Caucasus which has suffered a devastating war. It's government in 2008 introduced a birth encouragement program to replace the population. Each newlywed couple gets about $780 at their wedding. For each newborn, newlyweds get cash payments. Families with six or more children under 18 are given a house.

The conflict started in 1988 and escalated in 1991 when the Soviet Union collapsed. Nagorno-Karabakh's ethnic Armenians, with backing from neighboring Armenia, fought Azerbaijan. 65,000 ethnic Armenians and 40,000 ethnic Azeris were displaced. The Muslim Azeri population never returned, and neither did many of the Armenians who had fled. A cease-fire was declared in May 1994 and on Sept. 2, Nagorno-Karabakh celebrated 20 years of independence, though it remains unrecognized by the international community.

Unemployment is high in the area, salaries are low, opportunities are few; the young continue to leave in search of better futures abroad. The average monthly salary is $50.

In a region as economically deprived as Nagorno-Karabakh, is the solution simply to increase the birthrate? Without first improving education, infrastructure and employment opportunities for future generations, and raising the standard of living, the children of today's baby boom may grow up to leave in search of better lives abroad, just like the youths of today.

U.S.: Knocked Up and Knocked Down; Why America's Widening Fertility Class Divide is a Problem

Two new studies bring the contrasting reproductive profiles of rich and poor U.S. women into sharp relief.

Childlessness has increased across most demographic groups but is still highest among professionals. The Pew Research Center says about one quarter of all women with bachelor's degrees and higher in the United States wind up childless. This is higher than in England, where 22% of all women are childless.

At the same time, the numbers of both unplanned pregnancies and births among poor women have climbed steadily in recent years. About half of all pregnancies in this country are unplanned, with poor women now five times more likely than higher-income women to have an unplanned pregnancy, and six times more likely to have an unplanned birth, according to the Guttmacher Institute's analysis.

Women with unplanned pregnancies are more likely to smoke, drink, and go without prenatal care. Their births are more likely to be premature. Their children are less likely to be breastfed, and more likely to be neglected and to have various physical and mental health effects. The very fact of having a child increases a woman's chances of being poor.

The declining fertility of professional women highlights the extent to which our policies are deeply unfriendly to parents. Europe has policies designed to make it easier to simultaneously work and parent, yet here, because our overall birthrate is robust, we have no national paid leave law in place and no decent childcare system.

The Center for Work-Life Policy report says that professional parents are working longer and harder, shouldering new responsibilities for aging parents, and striving overtime to provide their children with all that they, in many cases, had lacked—a smooth path of success and both parents by their side. The costs are steep and include anxiety and exhaustion.

Poorer women are having more unintended pregnancies. Only about 40% of women who needed publicly funded family planning services between 2000 and 2008 got them, according to the Guttmacher Institute. During that same period, as employment levels and the number of employers offering health insurance went down, the number of women who needed these services increased by more than 1 million.

With growing poverty rates and political attacks on already inadequate family-planning funding threatening to drive the number of unintended pregnancies among poor women even higher, and little effort being made to address the pressures driving other women away from having kids, the gap between professionals and poor women could widen. Still, both are struggling with the same problem: an untenable "choice" between children and financial solvency.

The Price is Right: How the World Can Buy Its Way Out of Poverty for Just $100 Billion.

With the number of people on the planet now approaching 7 billion there are monumental challenges entailed in the task of caring for such an enormous human family. Among those challenges was "ending poverty," said U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon in a statement, one whose resolution would "unleash ... vast human potential."

The usual definition of "absolute" poverty is an income of less than $1.25 a day. Fortunately there are already a lot fewer poor people living at that level of destitution than there used to be, less than half as many as there were 20 years ago. There were around 1.8 billion people worldwide living on less than $1.25 a day in the early 1990s; 1.3 billion people in 2005 and 900 million in 2010, according to Laurence Chandy and Geoffrey Gertz at the Brookings Institution, who suggest that if we could accurately and directly supplement the income of each poor person in the world to bring his or her daily income up to $1.25, it would have cost $96 billion in 2005 and only $66 billion by 2010.

Martin Ravallion of the World Bank argues that the majority of countries with an average income above $4,000 could end domestic absolute poverty through a tax on those earning more than $13 a day in the country. For countries with healthy, growing economies, this tax will shrink.

Countries with average incomes under $4,000 were home to about three-quarters of all those living on less than $1.25 a day six years ago, according to the World Bank, accounting for as much as 90% of the "income gap": the money required to lift poor people up to the $1.25 mark. This would leave the annual global cost of eliminating absolute poverty in countries too poor to deal with it themselves at about $59 billion, or less than the annual budget of New York City.

Chandy and Gertz suggest that by 2015 there may only be 586 million people living below $1.25 a day, suggesting that the annual cost of eliminating poverty in poor countries could be only $40 billion in four years' time. By that time, too, more countries will be rich enough to handle poverty on their own, and the income gap will have fallen further, meaning that the actual number could be even less.

But to make this work we need to be able to identify the world's poorest, work out exactly how poor they are, and deliver them the right amount of money to get them to $1.25 a day. We can't. Even the best income surveys are inaccurate, and enough people cycle in and out of absolute poverty that it would be an impossible task to precisely track and target them over time.

Economists Lant Pritchett and Deon Filmer found that tracking people's ownership of 23 different assets -- bicycles, land, and flush toilets among them -- was a very reliable guide to their affluence or lack thereof.

In Bangladesh, a cash-transfer program - designed to target families in the bottom 40% of the country's population with cash transfers - kicks in if families meet one of only a few criteria for eligibility: working as day laborers, as sharecroppers, or in one of a few low-paid occupations such as fishing or weaving; belonging to a female-headed household; or owning less than half an acre of land.

Bangladeshi also has a Primary Education Stipend given to parents of 4.8 million children from deprived households in return for sending their kids to school, at a rate of about $1.76 per child per month.

Six national banks disburse funds to parents with bank-issued identity cards at temporary distribution points set up within a maximum of five kilometers from each school. A study by the International Food Policy Research Institute suggests that even a very poor and very populous country can operate a large-scale targeted cash-transfer mechanism.

Based on the Bangladeshi experience, it's safe to assume that the real price tag of ending absolute poverty in poor countries by 2015 would be a lot higher than the theoretical cost of $40 billion. But it's hard to imagine even a relatively inefficient, bureaucratic, and poorly targeted cash-payment-based program exceeding $100 billion.

Many rich countries have been wary of any commitment to increase assistance. But perhaps they could all agree to an additional one-quarter of 1% of their GDP going directly to the planet's poorest? For a measure that could end absolute poverty worldwide, it hardly seems like too much to ask.

Growing World Population Needs Investment in Women, Youth

The UNFPA, the United Nations Population Fund, came out with a new report saying the population will soon reach 7 billion people and that greater investments in women's empowerment, young people and reproductive health are critical for a livable planet.

World population will reach 7 billion in late October 2011, only 12 years after hitting 6 billion in 1999.

Most of the increase is occurring in the developing world, where 215 million women would like to limit their family size but have little or no access to modern family planning. Many women lack the power to overcome traditional practices or family opposition to using it, the report said.

"When girls are educated, healthy and can avoid child marriage, unintended pregnancy and HIV, they can contribute fully to their societies' battles against poverty," said Dr. Babatunde Osotimehin, UNFPA executive director. "Empowering women and girls starts with improved access to reproductive health care and family planning."

In the world's 48 poorest countries, where population is expected to double by 2050, 60% of the people are under age 25. There “Too many teenage girls become mothers, too many die giving birth, too many drop out of school, too many are abused and discriminated against in their daily lives."

Rapid population growth is already straining less-developed countries' capacity to provide essential services such as health, education, transportation and sanitation, and young peoples' lives and productivity suffer accordingly, the report said.

Kenya: What Should Be Done About the World's Population Explosion?

Half of Kenya's population is aged 25 years and below and it is experiencing population explosion. What should be done?

Demographic growth is interlinked with poverty and environment that gets ignored whenever leaders meet.

Campaigners on population issues acknowledge that poverty and environmental damage can have complex causes. A surge in population in some well-documented cases has helped catapult a country to prosperity.

But, relentless population pressure is common to many of the problems besetting the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), up for review in New York. In poor countries, unbraked demographic growth adds to strain on infrastructure, health and educational resources, amplifies the risk of environmental damage and boosts exposure to climate change.

Even if countries reduce the proportion of people living in poverty, the number grows simply because of massive population growth.

If you have a population growing at 3% a year, it is doubling every 23, 24 years or so.

One example is Kenya, where the population in 2009 stood at 38.6 million, an increase of around 10 million since 1999. Less than a third of Kenyans have piped water and three-quarters have no means of sanitation.

Since the MDGs were drawn up in 2000, the world's population has expanded from 6.0 to 6.8 billion, 95% in poorer countries. By 2050, the total is likely to be more than nine billion, according to UN estimates.

Providing these extra souls with housing, water, electricity, sewerage, hospitals and schooling is going to be a mighty challenge, 227 million people had escaped slums in the past decade -- but the overall people living in slums had increased, from 776.7 million to 827.6 million. Half of the rise was due to population increase in existing slums, and a quarter to rural exodus. rw

Population Growth Key Barrier in Achieving MDGs

Leading economists, educators, health and environment experts and development planners have identified the uncontrolled growth of population as the number one problem in achieving the country's Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).

They warned that all the development achievements would be gobbled up due to the increased population and the real development would not be possible without bringing down the size of the population to a tolerable level.

If the population explosion is not declared as a number one problem, no development programme can be achieved. There would be no necessary allocation and resources to deal with population control in the country.

Environmental sustainability cannot be achieved due to increase of population and impact of climate change.

There is a lack of quality standard in the statistics of indicators of the goal and the need for reducing the number of dropouts from primary and high school levels.

Donors did not give necessary funds to achieve the MDGs and did not take initiative to increase market access to the developed countries.

The number of institutions has increased but access to health and education has been reduced.

There is large scale malnutrition among the children, not only in the poor people but also in those who are not poor.

There is a lack of employment.

Breastfeeding, nutrition and immunization should be ensured for neonatal children to meet the MDG4 by the UN set time 2015.

There is a need for imparting proper training to doctors, nurses and midwives to reduce pre, during, and post delivery maternal mortality.

Health targets could not be achieved unless 'wash' is incorporated as an integral part of health and development.

Bangladesh could not progress much in MDG attainment due not only because of poor allocation to the sector but also for high disparity among poor and the rich.

Bangladesh should pay proper attention in reducing high rate of population growth apart from striving to attain Millennium Developments Goals (MDG). However, Bangladesh did receive a UN award for its remarkable achievements in attaining the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), particularly in reducing child mortality. rw

Human Impacts of Rising Oceans Will Extend Well Beyond Coasts

Researchers Katherine Curtis and Annemarie Schneider from the University of Wisconsin-Madison found that identifying the human impact of rising sea levels is far more complex than just looking at coastal cities on a map. Basing on current, static population data can greatly misrepresent the true extent - and the pronounced variability - of the human toll of climate change, they said.

The researcher's report will be published online in the peer-reviewed journal Population and Environment. It will examine the impacts of rising oceans as one element of how a changing climate will affect humans. Economic and social vulnerability was linked with environmental vulnerability to better understand which areas and their populations are most vulnerable.

Existing climate projections and maps were used to identify areas at risk of inundation from rising sea levels and storm surges, then coupled those vulnerability assessments with projections for future populations.

"Future climate scenarios typically span 50 to 100 years or more. That's unreasonable for demographic projections, which are often conducted on the order of decades," explains Schneider. The researchers worked to better align population and climate data in both space and time, in order to describe social and demographic dimensions of environmental vulnerability.

Four regions susceptible to flooding were studied: the tip of the Florida peninsula, coastal South Carolina, the northern New Jersey coastline, and the greater Sacramento region of northern California. Using current patterns of population change to predict future population demographics in those areas, and patterns of movement to or from those areas, they were able to determine that, by 2030 more than 19 million people will be affected by rising sea levels in just their four study areas.

Through these migrations networks, "environmental impacts will have a ripple effect," Curtis says. For example, people who would have moved to Florida would have to remain where they started or move elsewhere if Florida floods.

A population's demographic, social, and economic profile affects the ways in which people can respond to local disaster, she adds. For example, children or elderly require a different approach to evacuation and resettlement than a largely working-age population, while workers from the agricultural lands of northern California will face different post-displacement labor challenges than those from the industrial corridor of New Jersey.

"As we anticipate future events, future natural disasters, we've learned how dramatic it can be -- and there are things that can be done in advance to mitigate the extent of damage in a location," Curtis says.

Help for Pregnant Women in Flood-Affected Pakistan

The health system in areas of Pakistan was disturbed by the recent flash floods, with 30 health facilities completely destroyed and no place to seek treatment for displaced persons.

The government in collaboration with WHO, Unicef, UNFPA, Pakistan Paediatrics Association and Pakistan Gynecologists and Obstetricians Association has begun identifing pregnant women and sick children and providing them immediate treatment. During the last four days, more than 200 displaced expecting mothers have been examined and given medication.

Mobile treatment programmes have helped uprooted women who were at the risk of giving birth to babies in dangerous circumstances, but they were referred to hospitals where they received treatment. "We have also health education and hygiene promotion sessions with the displaced population to avoid occurrence of opportunistic ailments," a doctor said.

300 children have undergone medical checkup. Most of them were given vitamin and other treatment.

Most of the women and children required food and clean drinking water. rw

Mobile Health Offers Hope to Patients in Africa

83% out of 122 countries surveyed use mobile phone technology for services that include free emergency calls, text messaging with pill reminders and health information and transmission of tests and lab results, according to the World Health Organisation (WHO).

Up to 40 African countries are using mobile health services. Large countries such as Ethiopia, Nigeria, South Africa and Kenya are leading the way. "The momentum is huge." ... "Millions of people in Africa still do not have access to any healthcare. With mobile technology they can at least have some," said the manager of WHO's special unit Global Observatory for eHealth.

In Africa, mobile penetration exceeds infrastructure development, including paved roads, and access to electricity and the internet.

In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Population Services International (PSI) supports a free hotline to complement its family planning campaigns. In Ghana, funding from a US university provides free mobile-to-mobile voice and text services between the 2,000 doctors who serve the country's 24 million population.

Migration to Urban Areas Holds Key to Kenya's Middle Income Status

Kenya is on the verge of a major demographic transition and rapid urbanisation.

The World Bank, in its report Turning the Tide in Turbulent Times, says this must be well managed for the country to attain middle income status within this decade. 30% of Kenyans live in cities; by 2030 this proportion may reach 48%.

"Economic activities in urban areas have a much higher yield than those in rural areas. No country has transitioned into middle income status by remaining predominantly rural," said the World Bank country director. In Kenya, for example, Nairobi and Mombasa have only 10% of the country's population, but 40% of wage earnings.

The working age population - age 15 to 64 - is bigger than the rest of the population, which depends on them. 55% of Kenya's population is of working age and is expected to reach 63% by 2030. As families become smaller, and life expectancy grows, this economically vital group drives the economy by working, saving and investing.

However massive investment is needed to support the pressure of an increasing population - in housing and infrastructure, job creation, and crime prevention - to reap the benefits of this urban transition.

The building of new homes is not keeping up with the demand, with only one-fifth to one-third of the necessary houses being built - even as the population grows by one million a year. Only 25% of those born today will have access to quality housing in the next two decades as they reach adulthood and start family life.

Electric power is the biggest infrastructure constraint on Kenyan firms, with transport coming a close second.

The World Bank report suggests that if Kenya's infrastructure could be improved to the level of continent-leader Mauritius, annual per capita growth rates would be 3.3% higher than they are currently.

Addressing Kenya's infrastructure deficit will require spending 21% of GDP.

The World Bank is optimistic that, with the right kind of focused investment and urban policy, Kenya can still achieve middle income status of $1,000 per capita by 2019. In 2010, growth was higher than expected at 5.6%.

Oil Plan Casts Shadow on Bolivia Park

Sergio works in ecotourism in Bolivia's most national park, Madidi. This is where he and four of his 11 siblings show visitors the jungle's many treasures.

Overall, the park is sparsely populated and encompasses the Andean peaks and the tropical basins of the Amazon. Some feel that protected areas like Madidi could deliver more for the country's poor.

Farmers have seized a part of the national park near Apolo. They wanted land to cultivate crops, a road and the exploitation of its oil.

But other villagers say the land is not suitable for agriculture and that extracting oil could cause lasting damage.

The farmers have drawn back and the government is promising a military post to defend Madidi. But the Bolivian president, visited Madidi to highlight the existence of natural resources.

"It is impressive how our own mother Earth has natural resources," he said as he watched oil being extracted.

It was Mr Morales's promise to re-nationalise Bolivia's natural resources and deliver prosperity to the indigenous majority that brought him to power.

But locals fear the president does not understand life in the jungle and will not defend their interests.

The government agrees that ecotourism has potential; but it does not see it as a panacea and says people like Sergio need to be more realistic about what is best for Bolivia.

The government is also concerned that what happens in Madidi will have a domino effect on other national parks and protected areas.

Activists want sustainable development in the constitution

The protected areas belong to the people and should provide opportunities for local communities. Conservation makes no sense if it does not generate benefits for society as a whole.

Environmental groups want to see a commitment to biodiversity and conservation. Biodiversity is Bolivia's biggest competitive strength. We need to define its sustainable development. rw

Uganda;: Forests in Danger

Forest loss in Africa stands at 0.6%, in the world at 0.18%. At this pace, Uganda's forests will have gone in 50 years time.

Population pressure and poverty are the underlying causes. With 7.1 births per woman, Uganda has the second highest fertility rate in the world. By 2050, Uganda's population will be 130 million, five times the current number.

Feeding, housing, creating jobs and income for so many people will inevitably eat into the forests. 97% of the population uses charcoal and firewood for cooking. Illegal timber logging has resumed in at times with the support of local politicians.

The number of people building houses, farming and grazing their livestock in the protected forests went up from 180,000 to 220,000 between 2005 and 2006, an increase of 23%. The encroachers resist any attempts by the National Forestry Authority (NFA) to evict them.

Any response leads to mob action and grievous bodily harm to NFA's staff.

Deforestation leads to climate change and drought. Scientists are also linking a rise in infectious diseases to loss of forests and climate change.

By increasing the temperatures under which certain diseases and their carriers flourish, more regions will be affected. South Uganda, which never had malaria in the past, is now hit by the disease.

Climate change may increase the number of refugees who are forced to migrate to other parts of the country or other countries, and will favour the spread of diseases.

Tree planting, timber trade and eco-tourism, if properly managed and controlled, can turn into a major activity. The New Vision will distribute eight million seeds as part of a country-wide effort to promote sustainable development. rw

Hadzabe Facing Severe Pressure on Traditional Way of Life

The Hadzabe are hunter-gatherers in Tanzania.

Their ancestral homelands covered large parts of northern Tanzania and included the Ngorongoro Crater and the Serengeti Plain.

Now, the Hadzabe exploit a far smaller territory that is home to a wide array of wildlife and flora that includes the baobab trees, home to the bees from which they collect wild honey.

The Hadzabe are facing severe pressures on their traditional way of life.

Scientists fear that the Hadzabe ethnic group could become extinct in a few years.

According to research by Oxfam, the Hadzabe, who survive on fruit-gathering and hunting, are under threat of extinction as their habitats have been converted into conservation areas and agricultural farms.

The researchers blamed the situation on poor government policies, which favour conservation of land for wildlife hunting. Researchers found that hunting companies were allowed to hunt in the Maswa game reserve while no locals had access.

The pastoralist Maasai face similar restrictions on account of licensed hunting.

Critics say that efforts to resettle Hadzabe in permanent villages have failed.

The indigenous groups across the planet are struggling to maintain ancient ways of life in the face of the relentless encroachment of modern ways of living.

While the Tanzanian government is not hostile to the Hadzabe way of life the politics of land in Africa are often fraught with many competing claims and full restoration in the region of Hadzabe hunting rights looks a long way off. rw

India: Mayel Lyang Sut Lom - Sikkim Threatened by Damming of Rivers

Mayel Lyang Sut Lom (Voices from the Hidden Land) is a 20 minute documentary showing the campaigns of the Lepcha community in Sikkim, India, against the construction of large dams in their homeland. The film shows the Lepchas struggle against the damming of the Teesta River and the destruction of the Dzongu region.

Dzongu, on the banks of the Teesta, overlooks the sacred Khangchendzonga the worlds third highest mountain and is home to red pandas, snow leopards, and the famous Khangchendzonga National Park. The Lepcha are waiting in apprehension for the harbingers of development the giant bulldozers, the heavy cranes, the polluting crushers. The film asks whether the dams being built in the name of development will destroy the Lepchas culture, identity and socio-economic fabric. It questions whether the construction of dams on the Teesta will leave the Lepcha homeless and disconnected from their mountains and hills, their sacred rocks and springs, their forests and streams. The film seeks to uncover who loses and who benefits from this kind of development.

South Africa: Pregnancy Tsunami

Almost 5000 schoolgirls in the Gauteng province became pregnant in only one year. Even more shocking is that more than 113 primary school girls became pregnant in the same period.

Health Minister Aaron Motsoaledi said teenage pregnancy statistics were of greater concern than those for HIV. "What this proves is that our children are having unprotected sex, which makes them more vulnerable." ... "Young girls are having sex with older men ... old men are targeting young women, whom we must protect."

Health MEC Ntombi Mekgwe said "Future generations will curse us and spit on our graves if we do not address this problem head-on." She was said "Bodies of young girls are not only unprepared for pregnancy and child birth, they are also not prepared for sexual intercourse.

A Sowetan teenager who has seen many of her friends become young mothers said: "It's fashionable to have a baby. You are like an idiot if you don't have sex".

Peer pressure, dysfunctional family units, and alcohol and drug abuse were some of the main contributing factors to the unprecedented increase in teen pregnancies, said Mekgwe.

Nigeria Reports Water Scarcity Across Numerous States

Nigeria, the world's eighth most populous country, has suffered water scarcity across a number of its states, which poses questions about infrastructure, long-term sustainability and population density.

Oil-rich Nigeria has a population of over 152 million people, with less than 30% having access to adequate drinking water, according to a 2002 Daily Trust report.

Earlier this year the government tried to ban latrines and select fuel stations in an attempt to prevent runoff. HReverend Babatunde Olusegun of the Christian Council of Nigeria said, "As the world is taking concrete efforts at meeting the United Nations goals of safe water and sanitation by the year 2015, Nigeria is yet to commence any action towards realizing these goals."

The US Energy Information Administration says that Nigeria has an estimated 37.2 billion barrels of oil reserves, yet 70% of Nigerians try to get by with inadequate freshwater supplies.

There is a glimmer of hope: the CIA World Factbook says that Nigeria's population is estimated to grow by 1.97% in 2010 - down from a growth rate of 2% in 2009 and 2.03% in 2008.

Prostitution Growing in India, Says Survey

Several factors are pushing more women and young girls to take to prostitution all over India. Latest estimates show there are some three million, a majority in the 15-35 year group.

There are several reasons why prostitution is growing, migration and poverty, political instability, erosion of traditional values, desire to earn easy money, globalization and declining job opportunities for uneducated and unskilled youths. Also urbanization, new attitudes to sex, apprehension among youths about their sexual performance, rise in hospitality industries, promiscuity as well as myths about sex with virgin women.

But prostitution is largely an urban phenomenon; a study involved interviewing 10,000 people, mostly prostitutes, across 31 states and territories.

Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal accounted for about a fourth of the total respondents. Girls and women from these states were operating in more than 12 states and territories. Bangladeshi, Nepalese, Bhutanese and Myanmar women also formed a small part of the prostitution market.

There is a new form of 'commuting prostitute' where girls and women from rural areas come to cities for specific hours on the pretext of working in offices/homes. They come mainly from groups and backward castes and are of all religions.

Call girls are from general caste groups and have had better education.

Most prostitutes, are 15 to 35 years. Many young men look for sex for pleasure and fun. While income for the majority of prostitutes ranges from Rs.2,000 to Rs.24,000 a month some call girls earn Rs.40,000 to Rs.800,000 a month.

But girls and women live in dilemma and duality. The study says complete eradication of prostitution is not possible. But its prevalence can be reduced. Dealing with such a problem will require sincere and sustained efforts of the government, voluntary organizations, people's group and all round support of the socio-religious and political leaders based on properly planned national line of action. rw

Toxic Water Rising Below Johannesburg

The water from the spring about 20 miles northwest of Johannesburg flows blood red. It is toxic, highly acidic and full of heavy metals, so nasty that newly weaned impala and other animals in the Krugersdorp Game Reserve downstream can't or refuse to drink the water - and some of them die of thirst. Not one living organism survives in the poisoned water.

Millions of gallons of the same kind of toxic water lie underneath Johannesburg, a city of nearly 4 million people. The water is rising 50 feet a month. If nothing is done, subterranean parking garages will fill with the toxic red water in about two years' time. Tunnels for electrical cables and underground railway stations will flood. And unnatural crimson streams will spring from the ground across the suburbs to the east of Johannesburg as the rising water escapes.

The city of Johannesburg exploded in a gold rush after the metal was discovered in 1886. Gold mines operated along a 25-mile strip from Roodepoort to the west of Johannesburg to Boksburg to the east, as hundreds of mining companies gouged out a gigantic hole under the city and its suburbs.

When rain falls, water runs off the hills and much of it is absorbed by the earth. The water turns toxic when it reacts with heavy metals underground.

When the mines were functioning, pumps siphoned the water away. But one by one the gold mines under Johannesburg were shut down as the gold ran out. The last one - which was pumping all the water from "the void" - was East Rand Proprietary Mines, which stopped pumping in 2008.

"The government has had acid mine drainage on its urgent agenda since 2009 but has yet to act," said University of the Witwatersrand geology professor Terry McCarthy, who released a study on the problem Thursday in Johannesburg.

McCarthy warned that current mining operations in other parts of South Africa were doing even more damage, and would eventually pollute some of Johannesburg's main drinking water sources, the Vaal dam and Vaal River, posing greater costs for future generations.

Some of the toxic water from the mines is polluted with uranium. Stephan du Toit, an environmental specialist with the Mogale municipality near the Krugersdorp Game Reserve, said that the water flowing through the reserve had extremely high sulfate concentrates. rw

Killer Drought Forcing Kenyan Women Into Prostitution

A searing drought across east Africa is forcing poor Kenyan women and children into prostitution. Shortages of food and water have sent prices skyrocketing for staples amid fears of a catastrophic famine. At least 40 people, mainly children. have already died of drought-related malnutrition and associated illnesses, as have thousands of livestock. 2.5 million people are expected to need food aid to survive. But extreme hunger may lead to an jump in Kenya's high HIV infection rate as women turn to prostitution. Several groups said there had been an increase in the number of sex workers along highways and streets. More and more girls are standing at the road side, many not even 13. Food reserves have run out and mothers can no longer afford to feed their children. Such prostitution accounts for between 10,000 and 20,000 new HIV infections a year. Parents are unable to provide for their families, children cannot go to school because parents have lost their source of livelihood. Now children have to contribute to the welfare of the family and the only way out is for the girl-children to venture into prostitution. About 7% of Kenya's 32 million are estimated to be infected with HIV and AIDS has killed about 1.5 million in Kenya since 1984 but the fear of the disease was not detering women from prostitution as they are faced with equally dismal prospects of dying from hunger. rw

No Legal Caviar Exports This Year

International trade in caviar from wild sturgeons will not be allowed until exporting countries promote sustainable fishing. This position amounts to a temporary ban on the legal export of caviar. The 169 CITES countries have set strict conditions for permitting caviar exports in an effort to control poaching and the black market in caviar. A government must show that trade is not detrimental to the long term survival of the species. Countries sharing sturgeon stocks must agree amongst themselves on catch and export quotas. They must also adopt a regional sturgeon conservation strategy and demonstrate that their catch and export quotas reflect current population trends and are sustainable. Information provided by the sturgeon exporting countries bordering the Caspian Sea, the Black Sea/lower Danube River, and the Heilongjiang/Amur River indicates that many of the species are suffering serious population declines. The proposed quotas may not fully reflect the reductions in stocks or make sufficient allowance for illegal fishing. It is currently not possible to export caviar and other sturgeon products from shared stocks. Iranian caviar from the Caspian Sea accounts for 90% of world caviar trade and at least 110 metric tons have been exported from the region each year. Consumers will be able to purchase this legal caviar as long as supplies last in shops and with online distributors. In 2001, CITES responded to high levels of poaching and illegal trade in the Caspian Sea by agreeing on a temporary ban. With the agreement of the countries where sturgeons are found, the rules on how to set quotas were made even more rigorous in 2004. The measures taken by exporting countries must be complemented by regulations in importing countries who are obligated to ensure that all imports are from legal sources. The CITES regime for international trade in caviar is comprehensive and strong enough to ensure that the trade in sturgeon products is sustainable. To ensure the long term health of the sturgeon fisheries, many states are establishing sturgeon hatcheries, and taking measures to stamp out illegal fishing. In 2001 CITES estimated the legal caviar trade to be worth some $100 million annually. Because prices of illegal caviar vary widely, it is difficult to estimate the value of illegal trade, but, it is enormous. rw

Papua New Guinea: Population Growth Fuels Conflict

Papua New Guinea (PNG) already has a history of clan violence and clashes over land, but "rapid population growth is adding to the risk of conflict," said Max Kep, director of the PNG's national Office of Urbanization, noting that various types of conflict are fuelled by limited resources, fighting over smaller plots of land and clashes between swelling urban areas are clashing with nearby owners of traditional land.

PNG's population is nearly seven million, comprised of nearly 700 ethnic groups speaking some 800 languages. 40 percent of PNG's population is under 15 and nearly half are under 20.

The country's population has more than tripled over the last 30 years and is expected to double in another 25 years. The average total fertility rate of 4.4 births per woman remains one of the highest in the Pacific region, says the UN.

"It's like having wild grass lying around waiting to be struck by lightning for a brushfire," said Helen Ware, a professor at the University of New England in Australia, noting the risk of so many idle, underemployed men.

Migrants - drawn to towns and cities for jobs and services - are fuelling population growth in urban areas, which are now growing at an average of 4.5-5% a year.

Around 97% of the country's land is reserved for traditional land owners who are often unwilling to release land for urban growth, so PNG's cities have nowhere to expand, according to the UN Human Settlements Programme (UN-HABITAT). The city of Goroka, for example, is facing critical land shortages which have caused rapid and informal urbanization.

Kep said a government initiative to encourage landowners to lease their land to municipalities is aimed at empowering them, with increased income and access to government services.

Many young people migrate to urban areas, but there are few job opportunities when they arrive, so they often turn to crime.

In addtion, in rural areas, "Villages which once were separated are now bordering one another, and conflicts are definitely arising through competition for resources," said Chris Turner, from Marie Stopes International, an NGO providing family planning and reproductive services in PNG.

In and around Goroka, fighting between families is also turning violent. One woman told of her family of five siblings, and more than 15 offspring arguing over smaller and smaller pieces of property.

Witches' Hats Theory of Government: How Increasing Population is Making the Task of Government Harder

In an address to Sustainable Population Australia & the Australia Institute, Australian Labor MP Kelvin Thomson told his audience that there is a clear correlation between population growth and social upheaval and unrest. The Arab Spring riots were a result of rising food prices, high unemployment, and a widening gap between rich and poor, and these riots resulted in changes of government in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya.

Due to a 70% rise in global wheat prices between June and December 2010, people simply could not afford the bread they needed to live.

Egypt's population had grown from 22 million in 1952 to 81 million in 2010 - four times larger. This meant a high percentage of high-testosterone young males, who are prepared to risk bullets and oust dictators. After decades of exporting oil to pay for grain, Egypt now needs to import both oil and grain to meet the needs of a population that doubled under Mubarak, and didn't thank him for it.

A US sociologist, Professor Jack Goldstone, said there was a clear link between rapid population growth and social unrest, seen in events like theFrench and Russian Revolutions. He looked at the recent riots in the London suburb of Tottenham and found that the population had grown by nearly 8% between 2000 and 2005, with a high percentage of new immigrants and young people - three times the UK average for this period.

Nigeria, Africa's most populous country saw a tripling in population from its independence in 1960 to 2010. Along with this rapid increase there have been economic booms and busts, military coups, widespread corruption, and ethnic and religious divisions.

Ghana's population quadrupled over 50 years and saw military coups during that time, even though the country is rich in natural resources. In 1994-95 land disputes in the North erupted into ethnic violence

Kenya's population quadrupled in the same period, and is currently growing at a brisk 2.8% per year. It has been beset by mismanagement and corruption.

While often the instability is attributed to ethnic or religious differences, these are merely symptoms of the underlying problem - too many people for the available resources of land, food, water, fuel, housing, jobs.

The Witches' Hats theory of government is that population growth is likely to undermine support for governments, irrespective of the prevailing political system and culture. The Witches Hats refer to the plastic orange cones used on slalom type driving courses. If you hit too many you fail. If a government fails a number of public policy tasks, it is likely to be voted out. If you're a government you're much more likely to successfully solve peoples' problems, that is, avoid those witches' hats, if you have a population that is pretty stable, rather than one that is growing rapidly.

For example, post WWII California is described by US environmentalist Frosty Wooldridge as "the most beautiful State in the Union." California's mountains, coastline and weather beckoned. Californian condors soared through limitless blue skies. Yosemite National Park, giant sequoia redwoods, whales and seals along its coastline - created the Californian mystique. Then it housed a reasonable 10 million people. Today 38 million people cram, jam, gridlock and fume in their fumes on forever crowded freeways. It is a massive subdivision, housing sprawl. Roads, malls, schools, churches, and homes devour land. Developers demolish nature.

California seems on its way to becoming ungovernable. Democratic governor, Gray Davis, was recalled. Governor Jerry Brown has been unable to bridge the budget gap and a sharp partisan divide. That sharp partisan divide is an increasing feature of, and blot on, United States politics -dragging the whole country down and making it nigh on ungovernable.

Example after example is given showing a correlation between rapid population growth and unrest. The article is worth reading - just follow the link in the headline above.

Demographic Dividend Can Become a Liability for India

Under the Indira Gandhi government, a policy error pushed for population control through a programme of coercive sterilisation. The reaction to that policy created the concept of coalition government in India, and resulted in a population explosion which ended up creating the demographic dividend a couple of decades later.

From this demographic dividend came a young, educated, eager- to- work population that has powered Indian IT companies to the global top league, pushed India's automotive sector to world scale volumes, and helped build the steeland- glass symbols of India's growing economic might in our mushrooming cities.

But if the factors which make having a younger working population such a great competitive advantage — energy, drive, ambition — are not channelized productively, they can explode into anarchy and destruction.

For example, in England this summer, riots flared into an orgy of mindless violence and looting. Most of the rioters and looters were youth with little or no role to play in the sustaining of Britain as one of the world's largest economies.

In 2008, Jet Airways, caught in the unexpected turbulence set off by the global financial meltdown, tried to sack 1,900 staff, most of them fresh recruits meant to man the cabins of its growing fleet. The sacked staff took to the streets and approached a rabble- rousing political party. For the first time, India saw smart, educated, middle class boys and girls take to the street to voice their anger. Fortuitously, since that recession didn't last too long.

But now things may be worse than 2008 and an estimated 611 million Indians were under the age of 25 as of 2010. These post- reform children do not understand shortages or lack of services or infrastructure. But they are young, and youth is the age of rebellion. So far they did not really have anything to rebel against. But hand them a concept they can relate to — and the idea of rebelling against an amorphous, anonymously evil idea like corruption is something young people can easily relate to — and they can explode.

World Bank: No Low-income Fragile Nation Achieves Millennium Development Goal (MDG); Enhanced Global Efforts Vital

About 1.5 billion people live in countries affected by organized violence, either currently or recovering from political violence, fragility and high levels of homicide, according to the World Bank's World Development Report (WDR) 2011.

Economic, political and security challenges undermine development and trap fragile states in cycles of violence. National institutions must be bolstered and governance improved to value job creation, citizen security and justice, said the agency.

"Children living in fragile states are twice as likely to be under-nourished and three times as likely to be out of school. And the effects of violence in one area can spread to neighboring states and to other parts of the world, hurting development prospects of others and impeding economic prospects for entire regions."

Poverty rates are 20% higher in countries affected by violence over the last 30 years. Nations lose an estimated 0.7% of their annual gross domestic product (GDP) for each neighboring country involved in civil wars. In the four weeks following the unrest in Libya, global oil prices surged by 15%.

While much of the world has made huge progress in reducing poverty over the past 60 years, countries facing political instability and criminal violence are being left far behind and face stagnation, both in terms of economic growth and disappointing human development indicators.

Securing jobs and to paying attention to vulnerable groups of people are the "key to social stability and economic development in different nations", said a World Bank representative.

The World Bank said it could play a constructive role helping governments to "stabilize domestic prices and to secure the supply of food to citizens."

The report suggested improving global coordination through measures including providing more integrated assistance for citizen security, justice and jobs, forging new international consensus on the norms of responsible leadership and encouraging knowledge exchange.

Africa: Preventing HIV Infection: Turning the Tide for Young Women

In sub-Saharan Africa women represent about 60% of all people living with HIV infection in the region. In young women aged 15-24 years, in some areas the prevalence of infection is nearly three times that of young men. This heightened vulnerability is driven by social, economic, and cultural factors that include transactional partnerships with older men, who are more likely to be infected. In gender-inequitable and transactional sexual relationships, decisions about behavioural change and condom use are mainly controlled by men and thus, prevention approaches have not greatly reduced the risk of HIV infection for young women in sub-Saharan Africa.

It was very disappointing that, in a large randomised trial of PRO2000 vaginal gel for the prevention of HIV-1 infection in women, 0·5% and 2% PRO2000 gels provided no protection against HIV infection. Results will certainly indicate the end of the road for PRO2000 as a potential HIV-prevention tool for women.

However, the results of the CAPRISA 004 trial, were released in July at the XVIII International AIDS Conference. These results showed that a microbicide containing 1% tenofovir reduced a woman's risk of HIV infection by 39% and the protective effect of the gel increased with consistency of use; women who used the gel in more than 80% of sex acts had a 54% reduction in HIV infections. The CAPRISA results are a substantial breakthrough for HIV prevention.

Promising, preliminary results from another potential prevention method controlled by women: conditional cash transfers. After 18 months' follow-up of a study in Malawi, girls in the cash group who were in school at the start of the study had a 60% lower HIV prevalence compared with schoolgirls who received no payments (1·2% vs 3·0%, p<0·05). This result was probably due to a reduction in transactional sex with older men.

Importantly, the results held even for a group of girls who received cash with no school attendance requirements (unconditional cash). The effect increased with payment size, which suggested that extreme poverty had a central influence on girls' sexual choices.

Although neither tenofovir microbicide gel nor conditional cash transfers will be an immediate prevention panacea, these promising approaches have the potential to greatly expand prevention options for women in sub-Saharan Africa. rw

Babies Win Wars

Note: This article is presented here as an example of what kind of thinking is out there. Some of it is true, some not true, but my concern is that the author is too concerned about the decline of white people and not enough about the longage of people vs a shortage of resources ... Karen Gaia.

Thirty European countries are either dying today or, like France, seeing their cultures and populations transformed by growing ethnic and religious minorities.

Europe is shrinking as the population in Islamic, African and Asian countries is exploding. In 2020, there will be one billion "fighting-age" men; only 65 million will be Europeans. At the same time, the Muslim world will have 300 million males, often with limited opportunities at home.

Little can be done to reverse Europe's fate. Germany's 80 million inhabitants would need 750,000 skilled immigrants every year up to 2050 to offset the declining fertility rate that started in 1975. Even if this could be achieved Germany's median age would jump to 52 from 42 while ethnic Germans would become a minority.

Throughout the 1400s, outbreaks of bubonic plague and pressure from conquering Muslim armies reduced Europe's population to 40 million. In 1484 Pope Innocent VIII decreed the death penalty for "persons of both sexes who slay infants yet in the mother's womb hinder women from conceiving."

The results produced fertility rates as high as today.

By 1510, the number of male births in England had almost doubled. Up to 1914, West European women raised on average about six children. The European economy couldn't keep up. In the 16th century, Spain called its young conquistadors "Secundones," second sons, those who don't inherit. Europe's surplus males began the conquest of the world. And despite the 80 million who died in Europe's domestic wars and genocides, their population rose tenfold to 400 million. Over the next few centuries, Europeans took control of 90% of the globe.

It took an alliance of Great Britain (10 million people) and Prussia (also 10 million) to prevail over France's 27 million. After 1861, Germany passed France's population and shortly afterwards defeated its neighbor across the Rhine. At the beginning of the 20th century, Europe's share of fighting age males had grown to 35%, with 10% belonging to the empires of Berlin and Vienna alone. In 1914 these two used their population advantage to make a bid for world supremacy. But their campaign to capture Eurasia's land mass failed. Though separated by an ocean, the U.S. commanded about the same demographic and industrial potential.

After 1945 Europe lost every war it fought, from Indochina, to Algeria to Timor. If Europeans had continued to multiply like in its imperialistic prime, the world would still tremble before their armies. In just 100 years, Muslim countries have duplicated the tenfold growth that Europe experienced between 1500-1900. In the last century, the Muslim population skyrocketed to 1.4 billion from 140 million.

If Europe had matched the fourfold increase of the United States the continent's 1.6 billion would still dwarf China (1.3 billion) and India (1.1 billion). Yet, is lower today (9%) than it was in 1500 (11%).

With a fertility rate at the 2.1 replacement level, the U.S. is still defendable. But how many times can America send out their only sons to prevent all those second, third or fourth sons from engaging in acts of violence abroad? The alternative to the terrorism of the Islamist secundones will not be peace but conquest. Terror is conquest's little brother. rw

Book Review: Sex and War: How Biology Explains Warfare and Terrorism and Offers a Path to a Safer World

The current Israeli Gaza attacks are partially the result of Palestinian control of women who get little family planning and typically have 6 children. The 1950 population was 1 million, is now 3.1 million and could be 9 million by 2050. Arab society is sexually chaste and few young men have sexual outlets prior to marriage. It is hard to imagine a more perfectly conceived breeding ground for team aggression, in this case taking the form of terrorism. The authors show with solid proof that it is primarily male humans who bring us war, but the driving force to make war since the dawn of human history, is the sex drive: bands of young males raid rival territories, finding the fittest females in classic Darwinian behavior.

The eerie similarity is found in tribal wars, among inner city street gangs, and then in full warfare. Terrorists are imbued with stories of heroic male behavior, which is much more powerful than the reported financial inducements. The power of group loyalty and, the reported joy of killing puts male behavior into sharp focus vs. that of females.

This leads to explanations of how crowding and the loss of food supplies leads to wars, often entered into with enthusiasm by young males, motivated by patriotism, bonded with their mates in tight groups, even joy or excitement over battle, or their escape from dull underemployment or unemployment. A path to a safer world is: first - among nations "failed" or getting close to failing - aggressively lowering birth rates through planned parenting, birth control, and, yes, abortion.

The book's recommendation for women's education as a contributor to better family planning availability and fewer unplanned pregnancies is de rigueur among anyone thinking about our global problems. The authors show that rarely in history have women been combatant.

The world remains dominated by male leaders who all too often feel good about solutions that seem to require bloodletting.

The main evolutionary drive for humans and mammals generally has been and is sex. Now in a dangerous age, where planetary destruction looms in multiple forms, we had better provide a workable form of making love, not war. It includes available, safe, economical birth control options. rw

Population Growth and Poor Farming Methods Weigh on the Land

In Burundi, the Mbarushimana clan is receiving a lesson in the limits of natural resources. Three sons, and other relatives, are trying to survive on land inherited from their father. They have one hectare, to be shared between the three. They are busy having children…in an uncontrolled way. What will be become of our children?" asks one of the sons, who fears the children will become landless, and even find themselves living on the streets.

Subsistence farmers in this small Central African country are struggling to find land to cultivate.

Plots are subdivided to meet the needs of growing families, which over-exploit the land, leading to soil degradation and its attendant problems. Agricultural land is insufficient and no longer has the quality necessary to give good harvests.

Burundi has a population of eight million, and a surface area of 27,834 square kilometres; a population density of 270 inhabitants per square kilometre. But for an independent environmental consultant, the problems relating to land use are also a result of the lack of effective equipment, of bad agricultural practices and of a high rate of illiteracy. Population expert Evariste Ngayimpenda believes more needs to be done. "While there is not a clear national land policy, nothing will be able to slow this pressure on the land," he told IPS. Burundi's population is set to top 10 million by 2015. Burundians fear that disputes over land will cause ethnic tensions to flare. Tutsis have long been at odds with the majority Hutu group in this country.

The return of Burundian refugees who fled conflict in their country is complicating land matters further.

About 33,000 Burundian refugees returned from years in Tanzania, leaving roughly 400,000 Burundian refugees in Tanzania. Fear of food shortages and continued insecurity seem to account for the decline in returns, The return of refugees has multiplied conflicts over land ownership, flooding the justice system with land cases. rw

India Completes Huge Dam, Critics Damn It

India completed a controversial dam on Sunday, that environmental groups say will destroy the lives of hundreds of thousands.

Authorities hailed the completion of the Sardar Sarovar Dam as an answer to the water needs of millions in the west of the country.

The Sardar Sarovar is the centerpiece of the multibillion- dollar Narmada Valley development project that taps the Narmada, India's fifth-largest river. The dam will connect an 86,000 kilometer (50,000 mile) network of canals and help irrigate 1.8 million hectares (4.5 million acres) of farm land and provide drinking water to 20 million people. It will help in flood control and generate 1,450 MW of peak power.

Construction of the dam, which is 1,250 metres (4,100 ft) long, 122 metres (400 ft) high, began in 1987. But it became the focus of one of the world's longest social and environmental campaigns.

Nearly a decade was lost over how to divide water and power and five years in legal battles with activists from the Save the Narmada Movement.

They claim the dam will displace 320,000 people -- and the benefits are false promises.

One said the dam showed policymakers favoured the rich in urban India, and went on a hunger strike that forced authorities to come up with better rehabilitation plans for some of those affected.

The Sardar Sarovar project will have to prove whether it is a right combination of engineering and natural resources or a blunder of depriving farmers of their land. rw

The Earth is Shrinking: Advancing Deserts and Rising Seas

Our civilization is being squeezed between advancing deserts and rising seas. Mounting population densities, once generated by the addition of over 70 million people per year, are now also fueled by the advance of deserts and the rise in sea level.

Expanding deserts are primarily the result of overstocking grasslands and overplowing land. Rising seas result from temperature increases from the burning of fossil fuels.

China is losing productive land at an accelerating rate. From 1950 to 1975 China lost an average of 600 square miles to desert each year. By 2000, 1,400 square miles were going to desert annually.

Satellite images show two deserts in north-central China expanding and merging to form a single, larger desert overlapping Inner Mongolia and Gansu provinces. To the west in Xinjiang Province, two even larger deserts--the Taklimakan and Kumtag--are also heading for a merger. Further east, the Gobi Desert is within 150 miles of Beijing. Chinese scientists report that over the last half-century, 24,000 villages in northern and western China were abandoned as they were overrun by drifting sand.

Kazakhstan, site of the vast Soviet Virgin Lands Project, has abandoned nearly half of its cropland since 1980.

In Afghanistan, with a population of 31 million, the Registan Desert is encroaching on agricultural areas. A UNEP team reports that up to 100 villages have been submerged by windblown dust and sand. In the northwest, sand dunes are moving onto agricultural land, from the loss of stabilizing vegetation due to firewood gathering and overgrazing. Iran, which has 70 million people and 80 million goats and sheep, is losing its battle with the desert. In 2002 sand storms buried 124 villages in the southeastern province forcing their abandonment. Drifting sands had covered grazing areas, starving livestock and depriving villagers of their livelihood.

The Sahara Desert is pushing the populations of Morocco, Tunisia, and Algeria northward toward the Mediterranean. In countries from Senegal and Mauritania in the west to Sudan, Ethiopia, and Somalia in the east, the demands of growing human and livestock numbers are converting land into desert. Nigeria is losing 1,355 square miles to desertification each year. While Nigeria's human population grew from 33 million in 1950 to 134 million in 2006, its livestock population grew from 6 million to 66 million. The food needs forced the plowing of marginal land and the forage needs of livestock exceeded the carrying capacity of its grasslands. Nigeria's population is being squeezed into an ever-smaller area.

In Mexico, the degradation of cropland forces some 700,000 Mexicans off the land each year in search of jobs in nearby cities or in the United States.

Rising seas promise to displace greater numbers in the future. During the twentieth century, sea level rose by 6 inches. During this century seas may rise by 4 to 35 inches. Since 2001, record-high temperatures have accelerated ice melting making it likely that the future rise in sea level will be even greater.

If the Greenland ice sheet, a mile thick in some places, were to melt entirely it would raise sea level by 23 feet, or 7 meters.

A one-meter rise would inundate many of the rice-growing river deltas and floodplains of India, Thailand, Viet Nam, Indonesia, and China. A one-meter rise in sea level would cause some 30 million Bangladeshis to migrate, internally or to other countries.

Hundreds of cities would be at least partly inundated, including London, Alexandria, and Bangkok. More than a third of Shanghai, would be under water. A one-meter rise combined with a 50-year storm surge would leave large portions of Lower Manhattan and the National Mall in Washington, D.C., flooded. If the Greenland ice sheet should melt, it would force the abandonment of thousands of coastal cities and communities. Rising seas and desertification will present the world with an unprecedented flow of environmental refugees and the potential for civil strife.

We must deal with rapid population growth, advancing deserts, and rising seas. Growth in the human population is accompanied by a growth of livestock populations of more than 35 million per year. The rising concentrations of carbon dioxide that are destabilizing the earth's climate are driven by the burning of fossil fuels. Reverse these trends or risk being overwhelmed by them. rw

US Georgia: Few Willing to Tackle Georgia's Most Pressing Issue - Growth

The most terrifying but potentially most beneficial issue facing Georgia is population growth. Most politicians don't like to discuss the population explosion - it's too complex. Georgia is having trouble coping. The infrastructure, from health care and education to law enforcement and traffic control, is breaking down. No one dares speak the unspeakable but runaway growth may kill us if we don't deal with it. State Supreme Court Justice Harris Hines outlined the challenges "They're talking about making I-75 23 lanes wide in a few years in Cobb County, and in the next 20 years, Georgia will increase its population by 50%." The prison population has risen from 15,200 in 1983 to 46,900 in 2003. Recent estimates show growth is continuing at an even faster pace, with about 60% from new people moving into the state. Georgia, with 8.4 million people, has the ninth-largest population of any state. Georgia has 2.2 million, 28.7% blacks, highest of any state. Hispanics 13%, Asians 2.1%. The median age for all Georgians is 33.4 and will have one of the fastest rates of growth of the elderly. Georgia has low educational attainment and income. More than 21% did not graduate from high school. Among blacks, 27.5% failed to finish high school. Per capita income is $28,523, No. 25 in the country. From 1990 to 2002, 36% of all Georgia births were to unwed mothers, 25% of births to white women were to unwed mothers, and 66% of births to black women were to unwed mothers. Georgia has four problems, high school dropouts, diabetes, substance abuse and gambling. The lawmakers take bows for denying some state services to hordes of illegal aliens without inflicting much pain on the corporate employers who induced them to come here. rw

Jakarta Says to Sue If Freeport Snubs Complaints

Indonesia will sue U.S. Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold if it fails to follow recommendations to stop pollution from its Papua operations. Critics say the mine creates environmental damage by polluting streams and killing wildlife. The report said tailings, had flowed through the nearby Ajkwa river and recommended the firm better manage its tailings, for example by using them for building construction. The firm might have up to three years to follow the recommendations. Freeport said it had implemented some of the recommendations and would follow through on the rest. The Grasberg mine is believed to hold the world's third-largest copper reserves and one of the biggest gold deposits. Indonesia needs foreign investment to speed up the recovery of an economy that verged on collapse in late 1990s. "If they look at it in a reasonable way they will know that it is for the long run," said a key member of President Yudhoyono's campaign team. He also said that haze from Indonesian forest fires could cloud skies again this year. That is bad news for neighbours Malaysia and Singapore where the smoke has caused health problems and shut down airports, close schools, and businesses. The haze, much of it caused by slash-and-burn at palm oil plantations, tends to be an annual problem but its intensity varies with the severity of the dry season. The problem has persisted and interest in resolving the issue tends to fade when rain comes. The government has been trying to litigate against plantation firms, many owned by Malaysians, whose practices cause haze, but could do nothing if courts fail to severely punish them. The government plans to open palm oil plantations near the Indonesian border on Borneo island. They will start by making use of the areas ready for planting and strongly oppose cutting down forest for the replanting of palm oil plantations. rw

Dying for Firewood

Uprooted from their homes by armed conflict, persecution and humanitarian disasters, almost 35 million people live as displaced persons (IDPs) or refugees. For women and girls in refugee settings, life is particularly grim and dangerous. Every day, millions of women and girls collect firewood at a risk of rape, assault, abduction, theft and even death. Refugee camps provide shelter, water, health care and food but rarely the fuel that cooks that food. Cooking fuel is crucial, but for refuges it cannot be taken for granted. Not only does fuel, in the form of firewood, provide the means to eat, it is often used as construction material or for health care. In addition, it is a source of income and can be sold or traded. However, the risks of collecting cooking fuel often remain overlooked by the humanitarian organisations. The burdens and risks of collecting cooking fuel fall disproportionately on girls and women. The risks are obviously hardest in situations of ongoing conflict - Darfur being perhaps the most dangerous place. Women and girls begin their search for firewood at three o'clock in the morning into the surrounding desert, hoping to find enough wood to last for the day, and to be back in time to cook breakfast before sunrise. But the finding a single tree means walking for several hours, and digging by hand in the clay soil for pieces of root. They often fall victim to the Sudanese government military forces, or the Darfur militia group which waits in the deep desert. Both are aware of the early morning treks, and feel free to commit mass rape and sexual assault. The attackers know they will not be caught, and women are well aware of what will happen when they venture out to collect firewood. In other settings, such as among the refugees that live in eastern Nepal, sexual attacks on the women and girls outside the camps occur less often. Yet local "forest guards" remain a threat for refugee girls, some who have been gang-raped and murdered in the forest. The situation becomes problematic since Nepalese law prohibits refugees to engage in any income generation activity. The women are not allowed to get firewood, therefore they cannot report the crimes they are subjected to. Fuel alternatives and firewood collection are important and urgently need to be addressed. Fuel-efficient solar-powered stoves, food that requires less cooking, and cooking techniques that require less time were some of the measures to change the situation. A report recommended sending patrols out with women as they collected firewood, as well as bringing in fuel in a humanitarian crisis. Income-generating opportunities for refugees and displaced populations must be provided. rw

In Kenya, Nomadic Women Hit Hard by Drought

The area's 3.5 million people suffering from the worst natural disaster to hit Kenya since 1971. If the rains of March to May fail this year, and international aid runs out, the drought is likely to spark a catastrophe throughout the Horn of Africa. Women and children are by far the most vulnerable. Because of the drought, men and their herds are walking to population centers, either to sell the cows or to allow them to eat from town garbage heaps. The women and children remain behind without water or food. Up to 60,000 children and women are malnourished, according to a recent UNICEF report. At least 40 women and children have died of drought-related malnutrition since December, but it is difficult to document because it is not treated, except when someone has finally reached critical condition. Because ribs jut out beneath the hides of most surviving cows it has become a buyer's market. While the men wander off for days or weeks in search of grazing land, the women wait for food aid or the return of the men. Government officials have sought to boost school attendance where illiteracy rates run as high as 85%. Many bush schools offer as enticement a simple lunch but this is not enough to keep children in classes when families find they must move. The parents have to look for food and they don't want to be separated from their children. Many are settling near villages where food aid might arrive. But the UN World Food Program has warned it will begin running out of staples at the end of March and cereals by the end of April. Corruption is a significant problem and some of those responsible for distributing international aid were in fact stealing and selling it. rw

Drought in West Africa Threatens Millions

In the Sahel region, Niger, Senegal, Mali, Mauritania, Chad, Cameroon, Burkina Faso and Nigeria are suffering failed harvests and lack of rain, affecting millions of people, with up to 500,000 on the brink of starvation.

The crisis is made worse by rising food prices and the return of 200,000 migrant workers to West Africa because of the civil wars in Libya and Ivory Coast. These workers are no longer able to send money home from their foreign jobs.

Now the question is whether the world's wealthy nations will respond in time - or whether they will repeat the disaster of the Somalia famine last year, when early warnings were ignored for nearly a year and thousands died needlessly before massive aid was finally sent.

The Sahel is a vast, sprawling, arid region, with villages often in remote and inaccessible places, making it difficult to distribute food to them.

Unlike Somalia, the Sahel is not in the grip of war, and it is not controlled by a militant group blocking aid from reaching much of Somalia.

UNICEF says it needs $100-million this year to save the lives of 500,000 children in the Sahel. It wants to provide food to a million people in the region, and so far it only has the resources to feed half of them.

David Gressly, the regional director of UNICEF in West Africa said: "Everyone has learned a lesson from the Horn of Africa famine. We're acting much more quickly this time. We're going to react in time and save a large number of lives."

The latest UNICEF surveys have forecast that more than a million children will suffer acute malnutrition in the Sahel crisis. As many as 60% of malnourished children can die in a food crisis, but the death rate in the Sahel could be higher than usual because the region has still not recovered from a serious drought in 2010.

Climate change is believed to be one of the reasons for the rising number of food crises in the Sahel, but high fertility rates and rising populations are contributing to the problem by putting huge pressure on the Sahel's arid farmland, which can't support many people.

Niger, for example, endured devastating droughts in 2005, 2010, and again this year. "The death rates could be higher this time because households are still under stress. It takes households that are on the edge and it pushes them over the edge. We've seen families starting to withdraw their children from school as a coping mechanism," Gressly said.

Emergency aid for the Sahel should be followed by long-term programs to strengthen the communities and help them prevent such crises in the future. It costs $80 a day to treat a malnourished child, yet it would have cost only $1 a day to prevent the child's malnutrition if the money had been invested in development programs in advance.

Uganda: Will Mother Nature Survive Population Pressure?

According to the UN Habitat report 2009, the population density in Kampala is so high, about 12 families occupy a single plot of land, and about 1.5 million people live in slums in Kampala. The wetlands and swamps have now been turned into residential areas because of the increase in population.

This has caused environmental damage. In Kampala, damage to wetlands and swamps has resulted in floods, especially in Kalerwe, Bwaise, Kawempe, Zana, Ndeeba, Bwaise and Kanyanya. In the east and north east of Uganda, mudslides and floods are becoming common.

The 20-year stability and improvement in livelihood and child mortality, coupled with a high fertility rate have contributed to a population growth rate of 3.3% compared to the global average of 1.1%. This makes Uganda one of the countries with the fastest growing populations in the world.

80% of the Ugandan population relies on resources like land and lakes for livelihood. 99% uses firewood and charcoal for cooking, putting a strain on forests, wetlands and causing a shortage of agricultural land. Kampala has swallowed up the greenery that once covered the empty hills and valleys.

More wetlands in Kampala have been cleared for human settlement and industries.

When the floods hit Kampala early this year, the former minister of environment, Dr. Kezimbira Miyingo, issued a directive that all houses in wetlands be demolished. However, owners opposed the directive, claiming they did not know they were building on wetlands.

The problem of flooding is so severe in the Kampala suburbs of Kalerwe, Kisenyi and Bwaise that tenants shift to other areas to escape the floods. Latrines are built above water streams.

During rainy seasons, the area residents often open a hole to release faeces from the latrines. The rain then washes the faeces into streams, from where they fetch water. Many people have no toilets and incidents of people using polythene papers as toilets is common.

In May this year, KCC received money from the World Bank to boost the fight against flooding in Kampala suburbs. The money was for reconstruction and rehabilitation of high risk areas, starting with a 3.6km drainage channel in Bwaise. Part of the channel was constructed, but it has not been helpful in controlling floods.

According to the 2002 population census, 12% of Uganda's population lived in the urban areas. The United Nations indicated that by 2007, 3.7 million Ugandans lived in urban areas.

According to Uganda National Bureau of Statistics, Kampala's population in 2010 is about 1.6 million people.

It is possible for sparsely populated areas to be overpopulated as such areas may have a meagre or non-existent capability to sustain human life. Already this is beginning to show in Uganda. Although access to water has improved, (67% of the population has access to an improved water source), it takes an average Ugandan over 30 minutes to collect water.

Rural households are also increasingly spending more time looking for firewood. Overpopulated places compete for the basic life-sustaining resources, hence a diminished quality of life. Increase in time for collecting water or fuel impacts on women more. Girls cannot complete their education, thus early marriage and childbearing which starts a cycle of poverty.

Despite the increase in population density in world cities, the UN Habitat says in its report that urbanisation may be the best solution to managing the rising global population.

Cities concentrate human activity within specified areas, limiting the extent of environmental damage. But this mitigating influence can only be achieved if urban planning is significantly improved. rw

Millions Stare Death in the Face Amidst Ravaging Drought in the Horn of Africa

Refugees fleeing the drought in Somalia take on average nine days in 50-degree Celsius (122 degrees Fahrenheit) heat to travel the 80 kilometres of sandy desert Dadaab in Northern Kenya. They travel through territories of lawlessness where armed bandits and even police harass the refugees.

When they reach Dadaab, they reach a country where an estimated five million people are facing starvation because of drought, according to Abbas Gullet, the secretary general of the Kenyan Red Cross. In the northern part of Kenya, the local Turkana community is facing starvation, just like the refugees at Dadaab.

Of about 850,000 people in Turkana, more than 385,000 children and 90,000 pregnant and breastfeeding women are suffering from acute malnutrition, says UNICEF. This has increased the number of new admissions of children suffering from malnutrition to 78%.

Across the entire Horn of Africa) more than 10 million people are affected and two million children are affected, with half a million of the children suffering from severe acute malnutrition and (many are) on the brink of death," according to UNICEF.

The Great Indian Paradox

Can India's impressive economic growth keep pace with the needs and demands of a still rapidly growing population?

Its population has reached the 1.2 billion mark, and by 2025 is projected to surpass China at 1.4 billion. Despite a continuing decline in fertility rate, India's population may not stabilize until 2050 or later.

Being the most populous nation is not as important as whether or not India's population growth will overtake its ability to feed its people, and whether its continued prosperity is sustainable.

India's per capita availability of cereal grains was 423 grams per day in 2000, but only 407 in 2009. And in recent months, India - like many other nations in Asia - has been fighting a furious battle with food inflation.

While India's grain reserves remain ample, domestic food prices in India have increased at a double-digit rate, straining the budgets of the urban poor, many of whom live on less than $1.25 a day. Many experts believe that the current rise in food prices is a sign of an emerging and chronic global food crisis.

India's farmers face falling water levels, declining runoff from melting glaciers, loss of farmland to urbanization, the effects of climate change, and the ever rising price of fuel and fertilizer.

A lot depends on the welfare and status of women and girls. If girls can be kept in schools longer, if the age of marriage can be delayed, and if girls and women can be given the access they want to family planning and reproductive health services, then India's future is more promising.

But the treatment of girls and women in rural India, particularly in the north, while improved in recent decades, still has a long ways to go. Now couples are often electing to abort girl fetuses, skewing the sex ratio. And between birth and age four, girls die at a rate that is about one-third higher than boys.

Experts are hopeful that by raising public awareness, enlisting the support of news and entertainment media, and working at the community level to cultivate the leadership of women, rapid gains can be made.

If India's quest for continued prosperity is overtaken by a global food crisis, it's not just India's urban poor that will suffer, the whole world will suffer. And much depends on whether India-and the rest of the world-can continue to improve the welfare and status of girls and women.

Food Price Hikes Could Push Millions to Poverty

Global food prices have reached near record highs, and the World Bank has warned that further spikes could push millions more people deeper into poverty. The Bank's global food price index was up 36% in March from levels a year earlier. The increase was driven by sharp boosts in prices for corn, wheat, soybeans and other staples. The index hovers near its 2008 peak.

Already 44 million people have been driven below the "extreme poverty line," which the World Bank defines as living on just $1.25 a day. Another 10% increase in food prices would result in another 10 million people to fall below the poverty line, while a 30% spike would lead to 34 million more poor.

Crops in many parts of the world have been damaged by bad weather, including a major drought that led Russia to issue an export ban on wheat. And Canada, Australia and Argentina were also hit last year.

Food prices have also been pushed higher recently by rising energy costs, as oil prices spiked above $100 a barrel. Oil is needed to produce and transport agricultural goods.

In addition, higher oil prices have encouraged many farmers to increase production of crops used for biofuels, such as corn. Global maize prices were up 74% in March versus last year.

"The linkage between food and fuel is much tighter than it was ten years ago," said World Bank president Robert Zoellick.

In addition, increased interest by investors in agricultural commodities as "an investment class" has also contributed to the rise in food prices, he said.

Also rising prosperity in emerging economies such as China has increased demand for more expensive foodstuffs, including meat and pork, which has pushed up prices for feed stocks.

"With food prices, we are at a real tipping point," said Zoellick.

He said the G-20 is working towards a "code of conduct" on export bans, which may have exacerbated the increase in wheat prices; and the G-20 could also do more to increase food production and help developing countries manage agricultural risks.

Food Prices Continue to Rise, Worsening the Food Crisis

The U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) reported in early March that food prices reached another record high, as the price of basic food staples continued to soar.

Wwheat and coffee prices doubled in the past 12 months, cocoa jumped 25% in two months and dairy prices were also up sharply. Unless crop conditions improve food prices could continue to rise.

The food crisis has contributed to the political unrest in North Africa and the Middle East.

"Although the recent price spikes are partially the result of short-term factors - droughts, floods, speculative investing, low reserves, and hoarding- food prices are likely to remain high as rising demand runs into supply constraints. While higher food prices will have a negative effect everywhere, they will have a particularly devastating impact on the poor, who already spend a large part of their incomes on sustenance and will be forced to spend more," warned John Bongaarts, the former chief demographer for the U.N.

UN 'Concerned' by World Population Growth Trends

A new report, "World Demographic Trends", from the UN Population Division, says: to have a reasonable chance of stabilising world population, and to avoid reaching unsustainable levels, fertility must drop to below "replacement level" and then be maintained at that level for an extended period.

Replacement level is the fertility level at which a population replaces itself from one generation to the next. In high mortality countries it is 2.5 children per woman and in low mortality countries it is 2.1 children per woman.

The world population is already poised to reach 7 billion later this year and this figure potentially could double to 14 billion by 2100 if action is not taken.

"Even countries with intermediate fertility need to reduce it to replacement level or below if they wish to avoid reaching unsustainable population levels." End QuoteHania ZlotnikDirector, UN Population Division

The least developed countries in the world are growing at the fastest rate and are already the most vulnerable to famine.

In the medium range scenario, world population peaks at 9.4 billion in 2070 and then starts to decline.

In recent years, there has been widespread acceptance of the medium scenario as almost a certainty but there is "no guarantee that this scenario will become a reality because high-fertility countries may not reduce their fertility fast enough and countries with intermediate fertility levels may see them stagnate above replacement level".

"Even countries with intermediate fertility need to reduce it to replacement level or below if they wish to avert continuous population increases to unsustainable levels."

Even relatively small deviations from replacement-level fertility can lead to dramatic changes in the size of the world population. The high scenario, where fertility remains mostly between 2.2 and 2.3 children per woman, would lead to a world population of nearly 30 billion in 2300.

"Even with significant fertility reductions, Africa's population will likely increase by 150% by 2100 and many of its countries will see their populations increase four-fold or more," warns the report.

Considerable effort over the next few decades is required to make sufficient fertility reduction a reality.

SOPA and PIPA Dropped by Congress in Wake of Largest Online Protest in History

Two days ago WOA!! at overpopulation.org went on strike, along with 1,000s of websites including Wikipedia and Redditby, by self-imposing a blackout to protest the SOPA/PIPA that would allow websites to be taken down by the government without recourse. Now it seems that the anti SOPA/PIPA activists have won the day.

Congress has dropped the bills in the wake of the largest online protest in history. 13 million people signed a petition to implore congress to oppose the bills in order to keep the internet free of censorship.

MPAA (one of the largest lobbies for the bills) Chairman and former Senator Chris Dodd told the New York Times in a statement that "this was a whole new different game all of a sudden."

"This is altogether a new effect," Mr. Dodd said, likening the online community's response to the Arab spring movement. He even went so far as to comment that he could not remember seeing “an effort that was moving with this degree of support change this dramatically" in the last 40 years.

Pulitzer-Prize Winning Reporter Sues Government Over Indefinite Detention Bill

Pulitzer prize winning reporter Chris Hedges has filed suit against Barack Obama and Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta for signing the indefinite detention bill into law. The suit challenges the legality of the Authorization for Use of Military Force as embedded in the latest version of the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), signed by the president Dec. 31. Under this act the military is authorized carry out domestic policing - for the first time in more than 200 years. As of March 3, 2012, the military can indefinitely detain without trial any U.S. citizen deemed to be a terrorist or an accessory to terrorism. And suspects can be shipped by the military to our offshore penal colony in Guantanamo Bay and kept there until "the end of hostilities."

The NDAA is a catastrophic blow to civil liberties. We must fight this act t if we are to have any hope of pulling this country back from corporate fascism.

Chris Hedges is a veteran war correspondent who met regularly with leaders of Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza visited the Palestine Liberation Organization leaders, including Yasser Arafat and Abu Jihad, spent time with the Revolutionary Guard in Iran and was in northern Iraq and southeastern Turkey with fighters from the Kurdistan Workers' Party - all labeled terrorist organizations by the U.S. These activities do not make Chris Hedges a terrorist.

Once a group is deemed to be a terrorist organization, the military can under this bill pick up a U.S. citizen who supported charities associated with the group or unwittingly sent money or medical supplies to front groups. We have already seen the persecution and closure of Islamic charity organizations in the United States that supported the Palestinians. Now the members of these organizations can be treated like card-carrying "terrorists" and sent to Guantanamo.

Chris suspects bill's real purpose is to thwart internal, domestic movements that threaten the corporate state. The Department of Justice considers you worth investigating if you are missing a few fingers, if you have weatherproof ammunition, if you own guns or if you have hoarded more than seven days of food in your house. How many million people meet at least one of these criteria? Adding a few of the obstructionist tactics of the Occupy movement to this list would be a seamless process.

Dissent is increasingly equated in this country with treason. Enemies supposedly lurk in every organization that does not chant the patriotic mantras provided to it by the state. And this bill feeds a mounting state paranoia. It expands our permanent war to every spot on the globe. It erases fundamental constitutional liberties. It means we can no longer use the word "democracy" to describe our political system.

What Obama has done is unforgivable, unconstitutional and exceedingly dangerous. Al-Qaida - which Hedges covered - poses only a marginal threat, despite the attacks of 9/11, posing no existential threat to the nation. It has been so disrupted and broken that it can barely function. So why do these draconian measures need to be implemented?

This bill ignores our Fifth Amendment rights—"No person shall be deprived of life without due process of law"—as well as our First Amendment right of free speech.

The oddest part of this legislation is that the FBI, the CIA, the director of national intelligence, the Pentagon and the attorney general didn't support it. FBI Director Robert Mueller said he feared the bill would actually impede the bureau's ability to investigate terrorism because it would be harder to win cooperation from suspects held by the military. "The possibility looms that we will lose opportunities to obtain cooperation from the persons in the past that we've been fairly successful in gaining," he told Congress.

Hedges suspects the bill passed because the corporations, seeing the unrest in the streets, knowing that things are about to get much worse, worrying that the Occupy movement will expand, do not trust the police to protect them. They want to be able to call in the Army. And now they can.

US Colorado: Boulder Overpopulation Reduces Citizen Opportunities For Democracy

Recently the Boulder City Council acted to reduce speaking times from 3 minutes to 2 minutes for citizens wishing to address the Council at public meetings. This is a symptom of a deep illness, where overpopulation is the illness and the large number of people seeking to speak is the symptom. The Council's action is like prescribing aspirin for cancer.

In 1950 Boulder had about 20,000 people and 9 members on the Council. In 2011 Boulder has five times as many people and there are still just 9 members on the Council. It is likely that today there are about 5 times as many people wanting to speak to Council on any given issue as there were 60 years ago. Thus, we have only one fifth of the democracy that we had 60 years ago.

Today's crowded Council agendas and reduced speaking time per citizen are the direct consequence of actions of past Councils promoting population growth in Boulder, but news stories have failed to suggest this.

Despite the fact that the Council has made sincere and earnest efforts to advance the cause of sustainability in Boulder, the new constructions of homes, apartments, condos and other buildings, all approved by the Council, resulted in increasing Boulder's population. In fact they have moved Boulder farther away from sustainability and will further reduce democracy in Boulder.

The Council should be mindful of the First Law of Sustainability: "You cannot sustain population growth; you cannot sustain growth in the rates of consumption of resources." This Law cannot be repealed.

Bet on India for Long Term

Despite the world's focus on China's rise, India, a nuclear power, is not out of the race for economic leader and may become the world's largest economy within the next 45 years. President Bush is trying to reverse prohibitions on U.S. sales to India's nuclear programs. His goal is to enlist New Delhi as a counterweight to China and Iran. India won't displace China overnight. Although the GDPs of the two countries were roughly the same in 1990, China today is ahead of India, with an economy that's twice as large and growing faster. But China has vulnerabilities, the lack of the rule of law and due process for example, has led to corruption, inequality and social unrest. India's cumbersome democracy, lack of central planning and unrestrained population growth, could be long-term advantages. China's leaders have adopted an export-led growth strategy and incentives have been created to produce national savings of more than 40% of GDP, and the money guided into public infrastructure projects and export-oriented manufacturing companies. Foreign investment has been courted in strategic targeted industries. These investments, with inexpensive but hardworking and literate labor, have made China the location of choice for production of everything. It passed the US to become the world's biggest exporter of advanced technology products. Ciaco predicted that China will become the information-technology center of the world between 2020 and 2040. The IMF believes that China can maintain 7% to 8% annual growth for the next 10 to 15 years and could be on a par with the US by 2040. All urban homes have at least one television and a washing machine, while about 60% have both mobile phones and air conditioners. Although India's economy is growing at 6% to 7% annually, it will not match China in near term. Nearly 40% of India's population is illiterate. At 25% of GDP, India's savings rate is half that of China's, while its rate of investment is less than half. Only 40% of urban households have a color television and about 20% have washing machines. Mobile phones and air conditioning are still mostly owned by the wealthy. But the high savings and investment rates of China are excessive. Japan and Korea, which had similar rates, eventually suffered from the costs of collapsing bubbles. China is wasting capital by building too many factories whose production will be in excess of market demand. One measure is that with double the investment, China's GDP is growing only a 2% faster than India's. China's banking and financial industry remains unsophisticated and subject to government "guidance" that generates the loans that waste capital. The proposed solutions threaten to make it worse. China's financial authorities think the solution to bad lending practices is bureaucratic directives rather than letting interest rates and market forces do their work. The authoritarian approach has the possibility that it will birth a backlash. China's leaders can move quickly because they don't have to worry about democratic procedures. But corruption is rampant and such actions ignited protest demonstrations last year. In another 10 years the one-child policy will begin to bite as China's population starts to age and shrink. In short, China will get old before it gets rich. India, in contrast, enjoys many long-term advantages. Although its literacy rate is lower than China's, its Institutes of Technology rival MIT and are better than such schools in China. Only 10% of Chinese engineers have the skills to work in a global company, while for India it is 25%. India's banking and financial institutions are established and have been lending on the basis of market-based analysis. Although India's democratic system can be cumbersome and slow, it is stable. English is the common language of Indians and makes it easier for India to fit into an international business system. India's growth has been a matter of deregulating and getting out of the way of aggressive, private-industry entrepreneurs who have focused on high tech and services. India's growth has so far been on developing innovative new services and high-tech products. Finally, India's demographics are favorable. Its population is growing and will surpass China's around 2035. That, combined with steady growth, means India's GDP will probably surpass China's in the latter half of this century. Half of India's population is under the age of 25, which means that India will have no problem paying for elders' future health care and pension costs. rw

Issac Asimov and Dignity

In an interview ( Moyers 1989 ) Bill Moyers asked Isaac Asimov: What happens to the idea of the dignity of the human species if this population growth continues at its present rate? Asimov responded: It will be completely destroyed. I like to use what I call my bathroom metaphor: if two people live in an apartment and there are two bathrooms, then both have freedom of the bathroom. You can go to the bathroom anytime you want to stay as long as you want for whatever you need. And everyone believes in freedom of the bathroom; it should be right there in the Constitution. But if you have twenty people in the apartment and two bathrooms, no matter how much every person believes in freedom of the bathroom, there is no such thing. You have to set up times for each person, you have to bang on the door, "Aren't you through yet?" and so on. Asimov concluded with the profound observation: In the same way, democracy cannot survive overpopulation. Human dignity cannot survive. Convenience and decency cannot survive. As you put more and more people onto the world, the value of life not only declines, it disappears. It doesn't matter if someone dies, the more people there are, the less one person matters.

The World After Oil Peaks

Even though peak oil may be imminent, most countries are counting on higher oil consumption in the decades ahead. Yet in a world of declining oil production, no country can use more oil except at the expense of others.

Some segments of the global economy will be affected more than others, among these are the automobile, food, and airline industries. Cities and suburbs will also evolve.

Stresses within the U.S. auto industry were already evident and their affiliated industries will also be affected, including auto parts and tire manufacturers.

Food will become more costly, diets will be altered as people move down the food chain and consume more local, seasonally produced food. Rising oil prices will draw agriculture into the production of fuel crops, setting up competition between affluent motorists and low-income food consumers. Airlines, both passenger travel and freight, will continue to suffer and cheap airfares may become history.

Air freight will be hit hard and one of the early casualties could be the transport of fresh produce from the southern hemisphere during the northern winter as the price becomes prohibitive.

During the century of cheap oil, an enormous automobile infrastructure was built in industrial countries that requires large amounts of energy to maintain. The United States, for example, has 2.6 million miles of paved roads, covered mostly with asphalt, and 1.4 million miles of unpaved roads to maintain even if world oil production is falling.

Modern cities depend on concentrating food and materials and then disposing of garbage and human waste. As cities grow larger garbage must be hauled longer distances and the cost of garbage disposal also rises. At some point, many throwaway products may be priced out of existence.

People living in poorly designed suburbs are often isolated from their jobs and shops. Suburbs have created a commuter culture. Shopping malls and discount stores, were all subsidized by artificially cheap oil. Isolated by high oil prices, suburbs may prove to be ecologically and economically unsustainable.

In the coming energy transition, countries that fail to plan ahead may experience a decline in living standards. The inability of national governments to manage the energy transition could lead to failed states.

Political leaders seem reluctant to plan for the downturn in oil even though it will become one of the great fault lines in the history of civilization. Developing countries will be hit doubly hard as expanding populations combine with a shrinking oil supply to steadily reduce oil use per person. This could translate into a fall in living standards. If the US, the world's largest oil consumer and importer, can reduce its use of oil, it can buy the world time for a smoother transition to the post-petroleum era. rw