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Capitalism Versus the Planet. April 19, 2008 Green Left Weekly
Is humanity going to pull through this environmental crisis? The really important thing is what we're going to do. There are ways we can get out of this crisis.

Under a capitalist system, the chances of the world getting our of this alive are very, very dim. We have to prioritise human access to water, food and those basic things that human beings need. And we have to move away from those things that exist only so that corporations can make a profit.

The only way we can deal with the ecological problem is to change the way in which we relate to nature through our production, and that is what the existing system won't allow us to address. Marx was the most advanced social ecological thinker in the 19th Century. You have to understand that Marx is the greatest advocate of socialism, of a system in which the freely associated producers would govern their own metabolism with nature.

He was concerned with altering our human relation to nature as much as our human relation to society. He was very influenced by the German agriculturalist, Justus Von Liebig, who argued that we were robbing the soil of its nutrients and sending these nutrients in the form of food and fibre to the cities, and thereby polluting the cities at the same time and breaking the ecological cycle. Marx talked about an irreparable rift in the metabolism between human beings and nature. Marx believed that, under capitalism we were creating a rupture in our metabolism to nature. Marx is talking about sustainability. At the same time one of the central points of his analysis of capitalism was that the system has to grow.

Economic growth has to do with the expansion of capital, the accumulation of capital in ever larger amounts, and the growth of profit.

Basically, profit comes from growth. Anytime the economy doesn't grow, you have a crisis under capitalism because the accumulation of capital, profits, aren't being generated. The greatest economist of the last hundred years, Joseph Schumpeter, said that the notion of capitalism without growth was a contradiction in terms. The people of the world are not being provided for even now. Three billion people suffer food deprivation or deficiency and the numbers are growing every year. The numbers are growing due to the nature of capitalism, the concentration of wealth and access to resources, and even food.

You have a situation where half the population really doesn't have adequate food or adequate nutrition and it's getting worse all the time. It isn't really because of ecological factors or population or anything, it has to do with what's happening economically, fundamentally.

Living Planet Report said that only Cuba was high on the human development index of 0.8% or higher and that also had a lower than average per capita ecological footprint. Cuba is the country that has been most successful in dealing with ecological problems. rw
Karen Gaia says: Of course I disagree when it comes to population, which has a lot to do with the problem. However, capitalism is also a big factor because it promotes two ideas: "we need more people so we can have more economic growth" and "consume more so the economy can grow".

CIA Chief Sees Unrest Rising with Population. May 01, 2008 Washington Post
Swelling populations and immigration will present new security challenges for the US by straining resources and stoking extremism and civil unrest in distant corners of the globe. The population surge could undermine the stability of some of the world's most fragile states, especially in Africa, while in the West, governments will be forced to grapple with larger immigrant communities and deepening divisions over ethnicity and race.

The projected 33% growth in global population over the next 40 years as one of three significant trends that will alter the security landscape in the current century. Most of that growth will occur in countries least able to sustain it. With the population of countries like Niger and Liberia projected to triple in size in 40 years, governments will be forced to find food, shelter and jobs for millions, or deal with restive populations. European countries will see particular growth in their Muslim populations while the number of non-Muslims will shrink as birthrates fall.

The CIA director predicted a widening gulf between Europe and North America on how to deal with security threats. The US sees the fight against terrorism as a global war, European nations perceive the terrorist threat as a law enforcement problem. A third security trend was the emergence of China as a global powerhouse, pursuing its narrow strategic and political interests. If Beijing begins to accept greater responsibility for the health of the international system, as all global powers should, we will remain on a constructive, even if competitive, path. rw

U.S.: House Hearing on Abstinence-only Programs: Advocates Admit to Program Failures.. April 23, 2008 Population Connection
Abstinence-only programming attempts to frighten teens away from sexual activity. Contraception is mentioned only in terms of its failure rates. Abstinence-only programming has received more than $1 billion in federal funding.

Under tough questioning even the supporters of abstinence-only programs admitted that federally funded programs have never been proven to be effective. The clear message was that abstinence-only programs are denying young people the information they need to make responsible decisions.

For more than a decade, abstinence-only programs have received taxpayer dollars with little accountability and no oversight. The US has the fastest growing population in the industrialized world. It's important to note that population growth is the driving factor behind increased emissions in the US. From coast to coast, you see spontaneous movements calling for slow growth or smart growth or no growth. But population growth is a national issue and our growth is being driven by teenage pregnancy and unintended pregnancy.

More than 30% of women in this country will become pregnant before reaching 20 years of age. One-third of all births are unintended. One in four teenage girls live with a sexually transmitted infection.

Study after study has shown that abstinence-only programs are misguided. Students in the abstinence-only programs were found to have first sex at a similar age and with similar numbers of sexual partners as their peers who were not in the programs. The overwhelming weight of the evidence shows that they don't reduce teen pregnancy or the spread of sexually transmitted infections. rw

Water Fears Lead Saudis to End Grain Output. February 27, 2008 unknown
Saudi Arabia plans to halt wheat production by 2016 because of concerns about scarce water resources. The Saudi government has not publicly given details, which comes as global cereal prices surge. Saudi Arabia will begin reducing production annually by 12.5% and will use imports to bridge the gap. The US estimates that Saudi Arabia's wheat imports will reach 3.4m tons by 2016, which could be in the top 15 largest importers of the cereal. The country at present produces about 2.5m tons annually.

The increase in demand would tighten global wheat supplies even further. The US report said that "the main reason for change in wheat production was concern over the depletion of fossil water since the crop is grown on 100% central pivot irrigation. The Saudi administration launched an agricultural development programme in the 1970s, including the establishment of irrigation networks, to become self-sufficient for some food supplies. Saudi Arabia became a net exporter and by 1991 production had reached 3.8m tons.

Demand for water is increasing rapidly as the population has swelled from 7m in 1974 to about 24m, with the government seeking to boost industry. The country has no permanent rivers or lakes and very little rainfall. The government has relied on dams to trap seasonal floods, tens of thousands of deep wells and 27 desalination plants. It is so expensive to produce water in Saudi Arabia. rw
Karen Gaia says: I believe this makes the case against desalination as a cure-all for the world water crisis. Saudi Arabia is a fuel-rich country, and if desalination were feasible for agriculture, the Saudis could do it.

China: Olympics Threat to Water Supply. February 28, 2008 BBC News
A Qiyuan from Shaanxi province, told the UK's Financial Times that people in north-western provinces may see social upheaval and environmental harm because of the strain on local water supplies.

China is building a network to divert water to the north that will divert water from rivers in the south via tunnels, dams and canals to cities in the north. Part of the project was brought forward to provide water for the Olympics.

In order to preserve the quality of Beijing's water we have to close all our factories, he said, and the government needs to compensate Shaanxi.

The project is blamed for the Yellow River silting up and causing flooding. It is unusual for a leading communist official to be so openly critical of government policy.

Shaanxi and Hebei province are required to pump clean water to Beijing in time for the Olympics.

They are on the northern stretch of a larger water transfer project designed to bring supplies from the Yangtze River in the south to northern industrial areas, including Beijing.

The project, costing tens of billions of dollars, is due for completion by 2010, but the authorities are hoping the northern leg of the network will be ready for the Olympics.

Water demand could rise to 30% above average as thousands of visitors arrive for the games.

Hebei province, which lies next to Beijing and supplies most of its water, is suffering from severe drought, caused by a lack of rain and snow.

Hebei province is being asked to provide an extra 300m cubic metres of back-up supplies to Beijing's 16 million residents. Several hundred kilometres of pipe and channels are being constructed to supply the capital, but farmers complain that lack of water is undermining agricultural land.

About 33,000 sq km (12,740 sq miles) of farmland was now affected by drought, while a quarter of a million residents were facing problems with drinking water.

Two western routes move water from the upper Yangtze to the Yellow river, the central route will divert water from the Danjiangkou reservoir underneath the Yellow river to Beijing and Tianjin. The Eastern route will pump water from the Yangtze to supply Shandong and Jiangsu provinces. The project is expected to cost at least $60bn and the estimated completion date is 2010 but Beijing hopes some northern sections will alleviate water shortages in time for the Olympics.

Critics say the diversions will drain farmland, forcibly relocate tens of thousands of people and impair water quality. rw

The Arab World Gets Serious About Climate Change. April 22, 2008 Reporter Associati
Arab environmentalists know that, when it comes to leadership to combat climate change, the Arab World was not the best example.

Arab countries that build their economies on fossil energy, and middle-income countries like Jordan, Lebanon, Tunisia, Syria, Egypt and Morocco that depend mostly on imported oil, are not at the fore front of policies and projects to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Its per capita production rate of greenhouse gases is almost identical to the EU. This puts pressures on the region to start reducing its rate of greenhouse gas emissions. Climate change is a major threat to the security of the Middle East. Existing tensions over access to water are almost certain to intensify in this region leading to further political instability. In a recent report by FAO it was stated that crop growing may become unsustainable in some areas as a result of the interactions of factors. Maize yields in North Africa, could fall by 15-25% with a three degree centigrade rise in temperature.

The 19th session of the Council of Arab Ministers Responsible for the Environment witnessed the agreement of the all Arab countries to deal with climate change issues. The declaration stated the need for the production and use of cleaner fuels, improving the efficiency of energy use, expanding the use of cleaner production techniques and environmental friendly technologies.

The Arab world has became active in developing new technologies for reduction of greenhouse emissions. The beginning of construction of the first carbon-neutral, waste-free city in Abu Dhabi, will showcase the best available technologies for reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. The city will use 75% less electricity and half the water of conventional cities. The city's narrow thoroughfares will draw on the traditional architecture of the old walled towns of the Middle East.

In the last meeting of the OPEC Ministers in Riyadh four Arab Gulf countries have decided to develop a US $ 750 million research fund for Climate Change. This is to support more efficient petroleum technologies for the protection of the environment, and promote the development of technologies such as carbon capture and storage. An estimated $120 billion investment is anticipated in the industry over the next 10 years. If this package of initiatives can be linked together in a shift towards sustainability and to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the Arab World will be able to declare its role as an active contributor in the global efforts to save the Earth. rw

Australia: State of Environment Report Highlights Challenges Ahead. April 15, 2008 Media Newswire
A new report says that the potential impacts of climate change on Queensland's natural environment presents challenges for the biodiversity, lifestyle and economy.

The State Government has implemented several key policies to address these challenges.

But the environment is under increasing pressure from a rapidly growing population that is consuming more land, energy and water, generating more waste and impacting on the systems that support life.

Among the key findings are, the ecological footprint for the average Queenslander is nearly three and a half times higher than the world average; the state's average temperature increased by one degree Celsius between 1910 and 2006; in the five years to March 2007, nearly all of Queensland received below average or well below average rainfall; Queensland's air has become cleaner; cattle and sheep graze approximately 85% of the state's land; while crops account for only about 2%; fresh water habitats are under increasing pressure from drought, floods, climate change and Queensland's burgeoning population; agriculture is the major user of surface water using 67% of the total water; the Queensland Government bore capping program has saved 130,000 megalitres of water each year, the loss of remnant vegetation hasn't changed significantly since 2003; trawl fishers trailing by catch reduction devices have reported reductions greater than 20% in the eastern king prawn, tiger prawn and scallop fisheries; almost half the flora and fauna species living in Queensland aren't found anywhere else in the world; there are more native plants and animals living in Queensland than any other state of Australia; there has been a reduction in the number of presumed extinct flora species; there was a 26% decline from 1997 to 2005 in the koala population due to urban expansion; pest animals cost Queensland $110 million a year by preying on livestock, causing crop losses, competing for pasture and spreading disease; invasive weeds cost Queensland an estimated $600 million a year in lost primary production and control; public transport patronage in south-east Queensland increased by 9% in 2004-05 and 11% in 2005-06 and in 2004-05; Queenslanders generated 314 kg of domestic waste per capita, with only about 50 kg per capita recycled.

The Queensland Government had introduced initiatives to meet the challenge of climate change and to build resilience into the environment to cope with the range of activities associated with human habitation.

An important component is monitoring the state of the environment so that any deterioration can be rectified. rw

Namibia: Maternal Death Rate Shoots Up. February 06, 2008 New Era
The data that the Nambian Ministry of Health and Social Services is analysing indicates that the maternal mortality rate increased from 227 per 100000 live births in 2000 to 449 in 2006. Child mortality rate increased from 62 per 1000 live births to 69 while infant mortality rate also went up from 38 per 1000 live births to 46.

The Health Minister said HIV/Aids was at the core of these statistics.

Child survival, and infant mortality rates is a barometer of a country's development goals. Many children die of preventable diseases such as pneumonia, malaria, malnutrition and diarrhoea.

Infections such as TB, pneumonia and susceptibility to malaria were killing pregnant women and children whose immune systems are already weakened by the pandemic.

Namibia rolled out an anti-retroviral treatment and prevention of mother-to-child transmission programme in 2006, but children born before that time might have been at risk of infection, said Kamwi.

Today 45000 HIV patients have access to ARVs, while 39016 attend ante-natal clinics at PMTCT sites out of 57720 pregnant women that visit ANC countrywide. Despite these achievements, the supplement said, the attention of personnel in the Ministry was detracted from preventative care for childhood illnesses and routine maternal health services because the health care system is stretched beyond its capacity.

"However, the critical shortage of health care professionals continues to hamper effective health services delivery," said Kamwi.

The gains that Namibia made after independence, such as reducing infant and under-five mortality rates have been reversed despite the health sector enjoying the highest budgetary allocation.

Not all hope is lost, however, as the supplement said Namibia could make up for lost ground if more money and personnel continue to be provided.

Kamwi also made a plea for more funding for health systems support and not just limited to HIV/AIDS.

Looking at the fact that Namibia surpassed World Health Organisation targets in rolling out ART in two years, as well as the success of the countrywide immunisation campaign against polio in 2006, Lwin said when the Ministry, civil society and the Cabinet put their minds to see results, "we can be sure to see results". rw

New Zealand: Clean and Green? Well, Yes and No. February 01, 2008 The Nelson Mail
Clean and green isn't the full story, as a new report issued by the Ministry for the Environment on Thursday points out. Environment New Zealand 2007 comes a decade after the first report on the state of the environment. To be produced every five years, it is a measuring tool that will help in decision-making as New Zealand moves towards sustainability. It shows that there is no room for complacency if clean and green is going to be permanently secured. New Zealand is a long way from losing its claim to a special environmental image, and progress has been made in greater use of public transport, protection for some land and waters, better pest management, improvements to waste management and a higher level of recycling.

Since 1995 the amount of solid waste disposed of at landfills has fallen from 3.18 to 3.16 million tonnes, but converted to tonnes of waste per thousand dollars of GDP, there has been a 26% drop. The number of landfills has fallen from 327 to 60, most with better environmental controls. The report notes that part of the cause is the introduction of user charges to dispose of waste.

Greenhouse gas emissions are up 25% since 1990, partly due to a growing population and economy but the emissions represent less than 1% of the global total; New Zealand is 12th per head of population.

There has been a 39% increase in total household consumption expenditure between 1997 and 2006, compared with a population increase of around 11%. About 61% of vehicles are more than 10 years old in 2006, 4% higher than in 2001.

Poor air quality, mostly from particulates from wood and coal burned for home heating, affects 53% of New Zealanders. The expanding dairy herd went up 24% to 5.22 million cows between 1996 and 2006 and has brought a reduction in fresh water quality, affected soil health and increased some greenhouse gas emissions.

There is no room for complacency if New Zealand is to continue to profit from primary production and tourism and, more importantly to protect for future generations what has for so long been taken for granted. Staying clean and green will require effort and change. rw

Rain Forests Fall at 'Alarming' Rate. February 02, 2008 Yahoo News
Human encroachment is shrinking the world's rain forests. Africa is a leader in destructiveness. U.N. specialists estimate 60 acres of tropical forest are felled worldwide every minute, up from 50 a generation back. Scientists today worry about Global warming that is expected to dry up and kill off vast tracts of rain forest, and dying forests will feed global warming. The burning or rotting of trees that comes with deforestation sends more heat-trapping carbon dioxide into the atmosphere than all the world's planes, trains, trucks and automobiles. Forest destruction accounts for about 20% of man made emissions. Healthy forests absorb carbon dioxide and store carbon. If we don't start turning this around in the next 10 years, the crisis will begin to spiral out of control.

The U.N. session in Bali may have been a turning point, endorsing negotiations in which nations may fashion the first global financial plan for compensating developing countries for preserving their forests. Because northern forests remain essentially stable, that means 50,000 square miles of tropical forest are being cleared every 12 months. The lumber and fuel wood removed in the tropics alone would fill more than 1,000 Empire State Buildings. Almost 1% of African forests disappear each year. In 2000-2005, the continent lost 10 million acres a year. South American forests are usually burned for cattle grazing or soybean farming. In Southeast Asia, island forests are being cut or burned to make way for giant plantations of palm, whose oil is used in food processing, cosmetics and other products.

In Africa, it's individuals hacking out plots for small-scale farming. In Nigeria's southeastern state, home to one of the largest remaining tropical forests in Africa, people from surrounding villages go to the forest each day to work their pineapple and cocoa farms. They see no other way of earning money to feed their families. The Cross Rivers government seeks to help would-be farmers learn other trades, such as beekeeping or raising land snails, a regional delicacy. Anyone who wants to cut down one of the forest's valuable mahogany trees must obtain a license and negotiate which tree to fell with the nearby community, which shares in the income. A community benefiting from such small-scale forestry is likely to keep out those engaged in illegal, uncontrolled logging. Environmentalists say such a conservation approach may work for rural, agrarian people in Nigeria, but lessons learned in one place aren't necessarily applicable elsewhere.

A global strategy is needed. A government earning carbon credits for "avoided deforestation" could then sell them to a European power plant, for example, to meet its emission-reduction quota. But in many ways rain forests are still a world of unknowns. How much carbon dioxide are forests absorbing? How much carbon is stored there? How might the death of the Amazon forest affect the climate in, say, the American Midwest? rw

Asia Faces Growing Rice Crisis - Real One. February 25, 2008 Asia Times Online
Leading rice-exporting nations are reducing sales overseas to check domestic price rises. Previously healthy buffer stocks in Thailand are shrinking.

The ban by India intensifies a worldwide rice shortage that drove up prices by nearly 40% last year. An additional 50 million tonnes of rice is needed each year up to 2015 to plug the demand-supply gap. Additional agricultural land for growing rice is extremely limited, while rice consumption is growing worldwide and wheat stocks are hitting record lows. Unregulated private cross-border trading makes exact figures hard to come by. India's rice export ban comes at a sensitive time ahead of the final annual budget. India's ban on rice exports follows a gradual limiting of exports over the past few months. The ban extends to all exports of rice except government-to-government trading, but excludes exports of basmati rice, a more fragrant, long-grained and expensive variety. Bangladesh, needs food grains after Cyclone Sidr in December destroyed $600 million worth of the country's rice crop. To cope with the crisis, the Bangladesh government floated global tender notices for 300,000 tonnes of various varieties of rice.

India's export ban caused 300 rice trucks to be stranded in India-Bangladesh border zones. A famine threatens remote areas of southeast Bangladesh after millions of rats devastated food crops. The animals turn to ravaging rice stalks and vegetables in the affected region. Higher incomes across Asia are leading to increased consumption of grains and vegetables and of meat, which leads to more grain being diverted for use as cattle fodder.

In the short term, prices can spike as natural disasters ranging from severe drought and floods cause havoc on agriculture. Vietnam suspended exports to protect domestic needs, while Thailand plans to auction an additional 500,000 tonnes of rice to cater to increasing international demand. Food scientists are developing sturdier varieties of rice that can withstand climate challenges as well as higher yielding seeds.

Microsoft chairman Bill Gates in January announced a grant of $19.9 million to help 400,000 small farmers in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa access to improved rice varieties and better growing technology. rw

US North Carolina: When Short Showers Aren't Enough. January 02, 2008 The Independent Weekly
Gov. Easley's request to turn down the taps has resulted in a 11% drop in water use in the City of Durham. Old habits die hard.

The scrambling to tap new sources of water has dominated, but we're failing.

That failure has some saying Easley and the legislature should do more to coordinate a statewide effort. The governor and his office have repeatedly said that, short of declaring a state of emergency and launching public relations campaigns calling for conservation, his office has relatively little power. Local leaders say the state needs to spend more money on a regional approach. No long-term solutions are being considered within Durham County.

Water experts say a carefully calibrated tiered water system promotes year-round conservation and is one of the best ways to reduce water usage. Greensboro put one in place in 2001 and average household use has dropped by 25%.

But leaky pipes account for 14% loss of water in Durham. The city would identify and triage the hemorrhaging offenders. Getting municipalities up to speed depends on better coordination among municipalities, rewriting statewide building and plumbing codes, tracking and regulating well water use, and storm water management and gray water laws. Important information is lacking. An obvious step would be to throw more money and celebrity power behind a statewide education campaign. Durham grows closer to sucking muddy water from below the intake on its reservoirs. rw

Australia: Survey Unveils Coast Future No-One Wants. March 01, 2008 Sunshine Coast Daily
This year, the Sunshine Coast Daily, Seven Local News, Thedaily.com.au and the University of the Sunshine Coast joined forces to present a survey to guage what matters to you on the eve of a new era for our region.
The Your Coast Your Say Survey attracted 1582 entries and three clear messages emerged.
* We do not want high rises.
* We do not want to be another Gold Coast.
* We don't want our environment and lifestyle ruined by overpopulation.

The biggest the question was whether population growth was a concern, to which 77% said yes and only 13% answered no.

The Sunshine Coast's influential players met to discuss the formation of a committee for the Sunshine Coast.

The bipartisan committee consisting of members from community groups, business and development sectors and environmental agencies, would develop innovative and practical ideas. The state predicts an extra 180,000 people will move here in the next 20 years. The South-East Queensland Plan has allocated $13.2 billion to Sunshine Coast projects.

The plan includes 11 new schools for $437 million, the Kawana hospital at $940 million, the $1.7 billion Traveston Crossing Dam and $564 million Northern Pipeline Interconnector.

The government is planning a multi-modal transport corridor to cope with growth. Each council has drafted a Strategy to cater for proposed growth, but have not been signed off at a state level.

Caloundra's LGMS predicts the population will grow by another 70,000 people in the next 20 years. Maroochy's LGMS projects 53,000 new homes.

Only one in five think these plans will contribute to a better Sunshine Coast by 2020.

Look at the Gold Coast and you look at the Sunshine Coast and we're 10 years behind. To stop that from happening, maybe the new regional council might be able to have a whole of region approach, where some of the good things that have happened up in Noosa can be applied around the region.

Dr White believes public transport will be the major issue in the near future.

Public transport needs to be improved dramatically, and certainly that is on the cards, but we're spending huge amounts of money to make it easier for people to drive cars. It would be good to see light rail across the Coast, tram systems and buses that run on gas rather than diesel.

Only 20% chose public transport as their preferred mode of transport for the future. Recycled water is the most preferred option to address the coming water crisis, whereas, the Traveston Dam has lost support since last year's survey from 12% approval to 8%.

In last year's survey, the biggest crime concern was drink-driving. This year, 67% were listed street violence as the most significant problem. Daylight saving gained more support with 61% for it, compared to less than half last year. rw

India: Under Control. January 08, 2008 India Today
Last February started a 150-million-pieces-a-year plant in Maharashtra, adding to its existing 225 million condoms a year in Pallavaram 25% of which are in colour.

In 1964, India's population was 470 million and with an annual addition of 12 million, it was to double in three decades. Since urgent steps were needed, the allocation for family planning in the Third Plan was quintupled to $56 million.

Assistance was sought from international agencies, A team was asked to prepare a blueprint for new ways to successfully implement family planning methods and suggested the large-scale introduction of condoms.

Condoms were available since the 1940s but in 1968 the total production was barely one million and at 25 paise, the price was almost the same as in the US markets.

They were available only to a few rich while population growth rate was highest among the lower income groups.

The IIM team suggested that the government import condoms and sell them at a price accessible to the average Indian.

The price recommended by them'5 paise per condom. In 1968, the first shipment of 400 million condoms (one was imported from the US, Japan and Korea. Each box containing three condoms and all branded Nirodh.

A distribution system was worked out which involved free supply to health centres. In 1969, Hindustan Latex Ltd (HLL) set up the first condom factory in Thiruvananthapuram with an annual production of 144 million pieces.

The production doubled in seven years which competed with population growth to touch 800 million by 1985 with another manufacturing unit in Karnataka.

Now HLL produces the world's largest variety of condoms. Though the Indian population is predicted to be the world's largest by 2050, the growth rate has fallen from 2.4% in 1964 to 1.8% in 2005. And much of the credit goes to the humble Nirodh. rw

Population Growth and the Environment. January 08, 2008 www.HealthNewsDigest.com
The rate of human population growth peaked around 1963, but the number of people living on Earth, and sharing finite resources has topped out at over 6.6 billion today. Human population is expected to exceed nine billion by 2050. Many if not all of the environmental problems are either caused or exacerbated by population growth.

Trends such as the loss of the planet's forests, the depletion of fisheries, and the alteration of atmosphere and climate are related to the fact that human population expanded from millions in prehistoric times to over six billion today. Population growth is behind the clearing of 80% of rainforests, the loss of plant and wildlife species, an increase in greenhouse gas emissions, and the development of about half of the Earth's land surface. Half of the world's population will be exposed to water-scarce conditions and difficulties in meeting�consumption levels.

In less developed countries, lack of access to birth control, as well as cultural traditions encourage women to have babies, and lead to rapid population growth. The result is an increasing number of poor people suffering from malnourishment, lack of clean water, overcrowding and inadequate shelter, and AIDS and other diseases.

While population numbers in developed nations are leveling off or diminishing, high levels of consumption make for a huge drain on resources. As more residents of developing countries get access to Western media, or immigrate to the U.S., they want to emulate the consumption-heavy lifestyles.

Environmentalists consider the support of the Global Gag Rule to be shortsighted, and that support for family planning is the most effective way to check population growth and relieve pressure on the planet's environment. rw

US Colorado: Local Lynx Survival in Doubt. March 01, 2008 Durango Herald
Federal wildlife officials will not designate land in Colorado as critical habitat for lynx. They are uncertain whether the habitat in Colorado will support a lynx population. The agency left Colorado out of its proposal to designate more than 40,000 square miles in six states as critical lynx habitat, despite the success of Colorado's reintroduction program. The agency's main concern was the decreasing number of litters born in the wild.

Canada lynx were first released into the southern San Juan Mountains in 1999; today, about 150 radio-collared lynx roam throughout Colorado.

The Fish and Wildlife Services' concerns are valid, in Colorado, it's still an experiment whether lynx are going to survive or not.

The majority live on U.S. Forest Service land outside Durango. Their territory stretches from Durango north to Silverton and from Dolores east to Pagosa Springs.

At Durango Mountain Resort, lynx are commonly spotted passing through the ski area. It seems to be an area that's very important for lynx.

State biologists report they are in excellent health, but the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service is concerned about a recent dip in litter numbers.

Nearly 100 kittens were born in the wild in 2004 and 2005. Litter totals dropped to 11 in 2006 and hit zero in 2007. That was a surprise and the division will be watching litter sizes closely in the next few years. Biologists believe lynx can survive three years of low reproduction rates.

Colorado has the habitat to allow lynx to survive well into the future.

Environmentalists disagree, arguing that one of the best ways to protect lynx is to protect their habitat.

On the one hand, the US Fish and Wildlife is going to designate critical habitat. On the other hand, they're saying we're not sure about the viability of lynx. Environmental groups will probably bring a lawsuit against Fish and Wildlife over the exclusion of Colorado and other areas from the proposal. Reintroduction efforts in Colorado will continue.

We believe we can reach a sustainable population in Colorado. It can be 10, 20 years before we can really know. Our program won't change. rw

The Chinese: From Yellow Peril to Green Peril?. March 10, 2008 Spiked
The reaction of Victorian Britain to pollution in the Thames was to construct one of the biggest civil engineering projects at that time, London's sewerage system. It also provided an impetus to the development of the germ theory of disease. The problems that China has with pollution are viewed in a cautious way. China's population is so large, and its economy growing so fast, it makes the anxiety even greater. Instinctively, the reaction is that China should curb its development rather than find bold solutions to its problems. The possibility that China could become a fully industrialised and urbanised society, with living standards akin to those in the West, has become the ultimate environmentalist nightmare. The �green peril'.

As a consequence, economic growth is also viewed in a one-sided way. There is an over-emphasis on the problems that it can create. The fact that growth can lead to a better life for the mass of the population is virtually forgotten. And the capacity of a growing, more prosperous society to solve the problems that are thrown up by its growth is also neglected.

The key problems are discussed in the Western media and within China. The most authoritative is the 2007 report produced by the World Bank and China's State Environmental Protection Administration (SEPA). A combination of heavy coal use and a transportation boom are said to be devastating China's air quality. China's heavy use of water for agricultural, domestic and industrial use is said to be leading to dwindling supplies. Water is becoming increasingly polluted. Much of the country's land is turning into desert.

Sulphur dioxide emissions from coal use are leading to an increase in the acidity of rain. Agricultural land is being damaged and buildings eroded.
Not only is China blamed for using vast quantities of natural resource, it is also said to be a substantial contributor to global warming.

The common conclusion is that it would be better for the planet if China simply stopped growing. The Western fossil-fuel-based, auto-centered, throwaway economy is not going to work for China and will not work for India. Nor will it work for the three billion other people in developing countries who are also dreaming the "American dream".

One of the leading Western experts on China's environment has argued explicitly that China needs to sacrifice economic growth in favour of environmental protection. Beijing's message to local officials continues to be that economic growth cannot be sacrificed to environmental protection, the two objectives must go hand in hand. Curbing growth is probably the worst thing that China could do right now. Welfare benefits of growth.

China has gone from a society where the vast majority were dirt poor and rural to one that is more urbanised and wealthy today. Life expectancy has risen by several years. Infant mortality has halved.

From these few statistics it should be clear that China has made enormous strides forward during the period of rapid economic growth. Extreme poverty including the scourge of famine is a thing of the past. Problems remain. China's widening inequalities are real, but absolute living standards have risen.

China needs to develop a lot more to be as rich as the West. Nevertheless, the Chinese economy has taken positive steps and the welfare of the Chinese people has improved as a result.

There is a common misconception that the more an economy industrialises the more polluted it becomes. But what happens is that as a society becomes richer, it also builds up more resources to deal with its environmental problems.
China can go through such a transition. More modern factories can reduce air pollution considerably. Cleaner energy can play a positive role. And technologies such as desalination can overcome any water shortages.

But the price of business as usual, including the effects of global warming on China itself, strikes many of its own experts and some senior officials as intolerably high.

On the contrary, the more rapidly China develops, the more resources it will have with which to tackle pollution. Much clean technology has already been invented, and China can utilise this.

The argument about China using up the world's resources is also misplaced. No doubt if China to Western levels, it will use many resources. But it is likely that, for several reasons, new resources will emerge to replace those that are used up.

As countries develop they tend to become more efficient: Fewer resources are needed for each unit of output. New sources of raw materials tend to be found, as resources are used up, this provides an impetus for more exploration. If a resource is becoming scarce it is often the case that a substitute resource can be found.

Perhaps the least understood point is that new resources emerge as society becomes more developed. Things that were not resources in the past become resources as a result of economic and technological development. Economic development has thrown up substantial environmental problems for China. Economic growth has brought higher living standards and enormous welfare benefits for the Chinese people. It should also provide an environmental transition in which the environment is reshaped to benefit its inhabitants.

The portrayal of China as a threat to the global environment, a �green peril', is a reflection of the West's anxieties rather than an accurate description of contemporary Chinese society. rw
Ralph says: I wonder where he got his "rose colored spectacles"?? This is the biggest load of rubbish I have read in years. Karen Gaia says: The author assumes that the Chinese Govt is backward and does not have access to the latest technology. This is hogwash. Most developing countries use leapfrog technologies which has allowed them to develop faster than developed countries did, except that development is subject to the limitations of per capita resources when overpopulation is the case. In addition, look at the technology of developed countries. In some cases it has kept up, but in the case of energy and water, it has not, and we are about to see the effects of a too slow technology. A third point to consider is that it takes a high per capita wealth to own the latest technology. That is something most developing countries lack.

India Heading for 2 Billion Population. January 02, 2008 People and Planet website
India's population will almost certainly be near 1.8 billion by 2050 and could top 2 billion by the end of this century unless fertility rates decline more rapidly in India's largest and poorest states.

The possibility of India becoming the only country ever to have 2 billion people depends on the course of events in each of India 35 states and Union territories.

India passed the 1 billion population benchmark in 2000, and stood at 1.1 billion in 2007. The government has been concerned about population growth outpacing economic growth, and India was the first country to adopt a policy to slow population growth. Since the policy was first stated in 1952, the country's total fertility rate has declined from about six children per woman to about three, but fertility levels vary greatly throughout India.

The decline has been greater in its southern states, which have much higher rates of literacy and education. The southern states of Kerala and Tamil Nadu now have TFRs below two children per woman.

The large states of the north, the "Hindi Belt," are where about 40% of Indians live. Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, with about 93 million and 188 million people, currently have a TFR of about 4.3 children per woman.

The state and Union territory populations were projected under two scenarios. One assumed that states with a current TFR above "two children" would decrease to 2.1 and then remain constant. The other assumed the TFR decline would continue until it reached 1.85 children per woman.

The first scenario results in a population that would reach two billion in 2066-2071. By 2101, four states, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh would account for almost half of the country's population. Scenario B does not reach two billion, growth peaks in 2081-2086, after which it decreases.

This state-based projection series uses national fertility rates and age structures, and PRB (Population Reference Bureau) believes it provides a more realistic scenario. The population projected for Uttar Pradesh ranges from 353 million to 364 million by 2051, and between 414 million and 480 million by 2101. The projected 2101 total for India ranges from 1.9 billion to 2.2 billion, depending on the assumptions for each state. rw

Urban Ecology: Taking Measure of the Coming Megacity's Impact. February 08, 2008 EurekAlert
Most of the world's population soon will live in a megacity according to projections.

When we think of global change, much of the current environmental impact originates in cities, and with demographic transition to city life the urban footprint is likely to continue to grow.

Urban challenges face communities worldwide, with solutions lagging behind. World changes range from land use and cover, urban waste discharge and urban heat island effects to global climate change, hydrosystems, biodiversity and biogeochemical cycles.

Cities will determine the global biodiversity and ecosystem functioning, sustainable urbanization is an unavoidable path to global sustainability.

Researchers have examined the living and non-living components of a city, revealing the dynamic nature of this ascendant ecosystem.

Urban areas drive environmental change, they are centers of production and consumption, in which the delivery of the ecosystems services link society and ecosystems at multiple levels.

Phoenix is the fifth largest city in the U.S., with a metro area population or more than 4 million. Phoenix's growth is emblematic of the U.S. West, which is expected to experience the largest population increases in the next 20 years.
In biogeochemical cycles, they show symptoms of the imbalances in nitrogen, carbon dioxide, ozone and other chemicals that they help to create globally.

Known as the heat island effect, urban and suburban temperatures are 2 to 10 degree F. hotter than rural areas. This translates into increases in air conditioning costs, air pollution levels and heat-related illness and mortality. A one-degree rise in temperature can bump up residential water use 290 gallons per month for a single-family. However knowledge about heat island effects has meant innovation and the rise of new and greener technologies.

Rural landscapes at a city's edge show changes in soils, structures, human settlements, the diversity of plant and animal species and further impacts on fringe ecosystems. Landscapes will experience the impact of the growth and operation of nearby and long distance cities. One approach has been to view urban systems as organisms that take up resources and produce wastes. For example, cities are sources for carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, and anthropogenic nutrient deposition. Fertilized and irrigated lawns release more nitrous oxide than the native desert soils that preceded them. Lawns support a year-round production of nitrogen oxide which contributes to ozone production and regional increases in photochemical smog.

Emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O) and nitric oxide (NO) have increased dramatically during the last century, primarily due to human activity associated with agriculture and fossil fuel combustion. We are discovering how urban centers figure into this equation, and how cities impact surrounding landscapes, and contribute to regional or global climate.

Urbanization increases in temperature, CO2, and nitrogen will affect the productivity, carbon and nitrogen cycling, and a suite of biogeochemical processes of the native ecosystems, resulting in altered ecosystem functioning and services.

Urban environments alter species compositions, biomass, distributions and ecosystem function. Plant types and habitat patches are increased by human activity wealthier neighborhoods plant more exotics and show increases in yard-to-yard heterogeneity.

Numbers of birds and arthropods like grass hoppers jump within city boundaries, at the cost of a diversity of types. Urban-dwelling species often flourish at the expense of indigenous species. Worldwide, cities alter the behaviors, physiologies, disease patterns, population densities, morphologies and genetics of city-dwelling organisms.

Cities create novel biological communities and they are the ones that most humans will experience.

Knowing how cities function, they can be enhanced through planning and urban design, to improve the quality of life and the environment for animal, plant and human inhabitants. Urban ecological study offers insight in how to navigate a sustainable urban future. rw

U.S.: The 25x'25 Alliance. March 22, 2008 EcoWorld.com
Biofuel is a renewable fuel that is not sustainable. Production of biofuel from crops in a relatively underpopulated nation like America, is one thing. Production of biofuel from crops where rainforest stood a year earlier, is something else entirely.

Biofuel will not make a significant dent in global energy production, yet it is profitable. Biofuel is playing its part in rainforest destruction, and we need to put equal energy into monitoring the health and extent of our rainforests. Sustainability principles for biofuel are absolutely essential.

We are learning how to extract biofuel from crop residue, timber industry byproducts, animal and municipal wastes. Policies need to be structured to accelerate these 2nd generation methods of extracting and refining biofuel. Better yet, technology needs to deliver 3rd generation biofuels that are grown in factory environments.

With these sorts of innovations the goal of producing 25% of all energy from renewable sources by 2025 may not have been ambitious enough. One of the biggest challenges will be to watch for unintended environmental consequences. Sustainability must strive to produce 25% of all energy from renewable sources by 2025 - by the 25x'25 Alliance, March 2008

Congress affirmed that 25x'25 is the goal of the US, to derive 25% of its energy use from renewable resources by 2025.

25x'25 Sustainability Principles

Renewable energy producers and consumers should have equitable access to renewable energy. Renewable energy production should improve air quality.

Renewable energy should maintain or enhance landscape biodiversity. Renewable energy production should bolster the quality of life in communities where it occurs.

Renewable energy production should be energy efficient, and conserve natural resources. Renewable energy production should result in a net reduction of greenhouse gas emissions.

Introduced or non-native species can be used for renewable energy production when there are appropriate safeguards. All regions should have the opportunity to participate in renewable energy.

New technologies, can play a significant role in renewable energy production, provided they protect environmental values.

Renewable energy production should maintain or improve water quality.

Renewable energy production systems should maximize water conservation, and protect water resources.

Renewable energy production should enhance wildlife habitat. rw

Rush for Biofuels Threatens Starvation on a Global Scale. March 07, 2008 Times Online
The rush towards biofuels is theatening world food production and the lives of billions of people. In his first important public speech since he was appointed, as Chief Scientific Advisor in the UK he described the potential impacts of food shortages as a problem which rivalled that of climate change.

It's very hard to imagine how we can see the world growing enough crops to produce renewable energy and at the same time meet the enormous demand for food.
By 2030,the world population would have increased and a 50% increase in food production would be needed. By 2080 it would need to double. But the rush to biofuels means that land has been given over to fuel rather than food.

Already biofuels have contributed to the rapid rise in international wheat prices. Shoppers in the UK faced price rises because of the soaring cost of feeding livestock.

The Government welcomed a target requiring 10% of all fuel sold in British service stations to be derived from plants within 12 years. The US Farmers planted 90.5 million acres of corn in 2007, 15% more than a year before. In due course 40% of that corn ends up in petrol tanks, and the world will face a costlier time feeding itself.

The prospect of food shortages over the next 20 years is so acute that all must tackle it immediately.

An extra six million people are born every month. Growing enough food for everyone was challenged, because of climate change, which was likely to lead to a shortage of water.

The supply of water will be put under further pressure because of the increased number of people who need it. The production of a tonne of wheat, for requires 50 tonnes of water.

Demand has grown enormously, particularly in China and India. By 2030 energy demand is going to be up by 50% and demand for food is going to be up by 50%. rw

Biofuels: Fields of Dreams. March 09, 2008 Times Online
Are biofuels the answer to exhausted oil wells or another nightmare scenario?
Only two months have passed since Lord Rooker, minister for sustainable food and farming and animal health, opened the UK's first bioethanol plant at in Norfolk, when he pronounced himself "pleased to see the UK is leading the way in promoting sustainable biofuel production". But we need more research. Until it's done, the MPs want the government to suspend all support for biofuels.

The case against biodiesel is that virgin rainforest in Indonesia and Malaysia is being cut down to make way for soy and palm. Result: more CO2 is being released into the atmosphere. The problem with bioethanol is that it uses human or animal food crops, and so threatens to create shortages and price increases that will make hungry people even hungrier. Population growth means the world will need 40% more food by 2020, and climate change will mean less land to grow it on. And yet already, 25% of the US corn crop is going for bioethanol, and wheat prices compete with oil in the frequency with which they set new records.

In Tanzania, where European and US biofuel companies were already moving in, "Huge changes in land use and land ownership are scheduled, meaning that fuel will be grown instead of food, and small-scale farmers will be pushed off their lands, biofuel crops will always start to be cultivated on the most productive land�"; and the risk of Europe exporting environmental problems to developing countries supplying the fuels.

The mistake is to believe that we can hold biofuels on pause and wait for some throbbing genius to come up with a perfect technological fix. If the consumption of commercial biofuels is to increase, then there will have to be some incentive for car makers and their customers to build and drive vehicles that run on them. At the moment, European fuel standards allow suppliers to mix up to 5% of biofuel into regular petrol or diesel.

By vandalising forests, displacing food crops and using fossil fuels to run their vehicles and plant, biofuel companies are not damping down climate change; they are stoking it. Biofuels should not be made at the expense of the rainforest, or of the ability of Africa to feed itself, or of a liveable climate.

With effective political leadership, all these needs might be balanced. Biofuels must not be associated with deforestation, says Ensus's Alwyn Hughes. "The sooner we get robust sustainability certification in place, well-thought-out processes for measuring carbon, and holding people like ourselves to account, the better." It is unusual to see an industry clamouring for regulation, but it believes this is the only way forward.

Stimulating agriculture means cutting subsidised exports from Europe and America, and creating incentives for enterprises such as biofuel crops.

The risk is that higher prices will then enrich the rural population at the expense of the urban, who will have to pay more for their food. The optimists' answer is that revived rural economies will halt the flow of villagers into urban slums.

There should be a moratorium on biofuels until so-called "second-generation feedstocks" � switchgrass, jatropha seeds, woodchip, municipal waste or other organic materials � are ready for wide-scale production. But we're living on a planet that's going to warm up in that 20 years. The sooner we get the thing moving, the better.

The hydrogen fuel cell is known as the holy grail. Recently a vehicle has been created that runs on a fuel cell but boasts the performance and looks of a traditional car. Manufacturing it is a filthy business � the environmental cost of hydrogen is on a par with oil � unless you do so by means of sustainable energy, such as wind or solar power, and that still isn't viable for the amount that we need. rw

Cities, Megacities, and the Price of Oil. February 15, 2008 Donal Seeking blog
An urban poor person needs one or two dollars to buy everything he or she needs: shelter, food, fuel, medicines, clothes, transport, even taxes. But a rural poor person with a piece of land may be much better off in that their land, which may provide food, perhaps fuel, and shelter. Their monetary income may be additional to their basic needs. This is why land reform is more important than aid to poor countries, why a standpipe or irrigation system is better than encouraging a move to the city.

But people vote in cities, pay taxes, are easier to monitor and control. Its cheaper to provide healthcare and education, businesses have the critical mass to survive. One of the aims of taxation is to force workers into a society which produces surplus, rather than self-sufficiency which cannot support a ruling class.

Poor city-societies are vulnerable and require imports of energy and food, which must be paid for with the profit from commerce. In poorer countries that means trading of the country's natural wealth. That is the 'profit' that pays for everything else. But the main activity of the city may be government administration, tax collecting and all the paraphernalia we are familiar with.

As energy prices rise and food prices double, poorer cities suffer most, because energy and food are their unavoidable imports. Poor self-sufficient people with their own land are largely unaffected. If we want to aid the people of a poor country, then land reform, provision of basic tools, water supply, non-hybrid seeds and harvest storage are best for the people. rw
Karen Gaia says: This opinion piece ignores the impacts of overpopulation on agricultural land. When the number of children that survive childhood expands from 2 per family to 4 or 6 (due to better sanitation and health practices), the multiplication of people upon the land forces migration of the excess younger people to the cities.

Asia: Go Solar, Presenter Says. March 02, 2008 Taipei Times
Gerhard Knies said the future of clean energy lies in deserts, where sunlight is abundant. This may create revenue, and employment opportunities.

"The amount of energy available in deserts around the world is 700 times the needed amount to support a 10 billion global population." Knies said.

Coal-burning imposes environmental damage and fossil fuel is becoming increasingly scarce and expensive.

In 2050 the world population is predicted to be 10 billion, but fossil fuel burning will at the same time compromise the world's capacity to support only 3 billion people.

A switch to clean energy is sustainable and abundant.

Knies recommended solar energy since it is "the only clean energy that is sufficient for the world population, cheap to produce, has rare intermittences and can be readily deployed on a mass scale."

To drive the costs down, Knies said building them in deserts was best.

The cost can be further driven down by on-site heat storage in the power plants.

Solar energy presents a business opportunity. Based on an estimated global population of 10 billion for 2050, there needs to be solar panels capable of generating 400 million watts of energy each day to supply 50% of the world power with solar energy.

The rapid increase rate cannot be matched by nuclear plants -- it would be impossible to build them fast enough. rw

U.K.: The Elephant in the Room. March 06, 2008 CounterCurrents.org
We must change our basic way of living; it will either be made on our own initiative in a planned way, or forced on us with chaos and suffering by the laws of nature.

First, we must accept the idea that sustainable means for a long time.

The Government of the UK defines it as: �Sustainable communities are places where people want to live and work, now and in the future. They meet the diverse needs of existing and future residents, are sensitive to their environment, and contribute to a high quality of life. They are safe and inclusive, well planned, built and run, and offer equality of opportunity and good services for all.'

This means that the resources have to be renewable through natural processes and entirely recycled if they are not renewable. If the population exceeds the carrying capacity, the death rate will increase until the population numbers are stable. Using these criteria it is obvious that the current human population is not sustainable.

In the discussions taking place, population is a word we dare not speak. Population is the elephant in the room.

It is obvious that something has increased the world's carrying capacity in the last 150 years. That something is oil.

Oil is a finite, non-renewable resource and not sustainable. If oil is not sustainable, then the added carrying capacity the oil has provided is unsustainable. Carrying capacity has been added to the world in direct proportion to the use of oil, and if our oil supply declines, the carrying capacity of the world will automatically fall with it.

Our population today is at least five times what it was before oil came on the scene. Each of the global problems we face today is the result of too many people using too much of our planet's finite, non-renewable resources and filling its waste repositories of land, water and air to overflowing. We are in fantasy land if we think that we can continue to support the number of people that we do now without the full input of oil and its related products.

We have become so dependent on those fuels, that there is no way we can sustain ourselves at this population density and level of technology without them. Population redistribution provides no long-term solution to environmental sustainability, total population numbers need to decrease worldwide.

Extremes of temperature and climate, combined with weather-related disruptions, would severely reduce the size of the country's population carrying capacity.

With population continuing to grow, urbanisation eating up farmland, and more of our remaining agricultural land likely to be used for energy crops, food production will be squeezed.

The systems that produce the world's food supply are heavily dependent on fossil fuels. In addition, fossil fuels are essential in the construction and the repair of equipment and infrastructure needed to facilitate this industry. Almost every human endeavour from transportation, to manufacturing, to electricity to plastics, and especially food production is intertwined with oil and natural gas supplies. As each individual recycles more of his or her own waste, success is undermined by the constantly increasing numbers of people who create waste.

But how much land would be needed to provide all our electricity. It depends how much wind power can be constructed offshore. For wind power to supply all-electric homes at today's rates of consumption, for today's 60 million people, several counties would need to be covered with wind turbines.

The total amount of water used in UK is modest because agriculture can be carried on mostly without irrigation.

The UK Government attaches importance to lowering water use because of increasing water constraints: rivers reduced to a trickle for several months, reservoir levels dropping, water tables continuing to drop. The large increases in the UK population experienced during the last five years makes it even more important to try to push per person consumption downwards.

Half a million new homes are planned in the South East alone.

The UK is one of the most densely populated and built up countries in the EU and some English regions are already close to reaching the limits of their capacity to take further development without serious damage to the environment or quality of life.

Along with every measure for reducing per person use of water, we should address the problem of population.

All these problems are symptoms of the growth in the human population, currently surging through 6.6 billion people worldwide. The consequences are already clear without policies to reduce world population, efforts to save our environment cannot succeed.

The uncomfortable truth is that the impact on Earth's biosphere of a projected 9 billion people living at a desired higher standard of living in 2050 would be fatal for the planet in terms of greenhouse gas emissions alone.

Given the fact that our world's carrying capacity is supported by oil, and that the oil is about to start going away, it seems that a population decline is inevitable. Populations in serious overshoot always decline, though actually, it's a bit worse than that. The population may actually fall to a lower level than was sustainable before the overshoot.

We are getting obvious signals from our environment that all is not well. Because we are now a global species with a global civilization, continuing growth of our numbers depends on the continuing growth of our civilization. There must be a sufficient level of food, shelter, energy and medical care available. All these factors will be put at risk globally within the next two decades due to the loss of oil. Food production and distribution will be hampered or impossible, and local agriculture will prove very difficult in some places. Other countries like those at the bottom of the list of developing nations will simply be too poor to compete against the developed world for the resources needed for survival. Populations will fall as a result.

The facts remain: there aren't enough resources to bring the whole world up to the industrial level of the developed world and the developed world is unlikely to consent to their own voluntary impoverishment in favour of industrializing the less developed world, and attempting such an approach would increase rather than reduce global ecological devastation.

The human race has only one or perhaps two generations to rescue itself. Faith in technology as the ultimate solution can divert our attention. If the present growth in world population continues, the limits to growth will be reached within the next one hundred years. The most probable result will be a sudden and uncontrollable decline in both population and industrial capacity.

As for man, there is little reason to think that he can, in the long run, escape the fate of other creatures. rw

Vision of a Living Landscape. March 07, 2008 Norfolk Eastern Daily Press
To mark the 40th anniversary of the Norfolk coast being designated an area of outstanding natural beauty, Steve Downes assesses the changes that will reshape the area in the future.

The Norfolk coast has a timeless feel. When you walk its beaches there is a sense that it has always been the same. When the ancient Seahenge timber structure emerged from the mudflats a few years ago, it seemed to symbolise the constancy of the coast. The truth, of course, is different. Seahenge was first buried and then uncovered because the coast has always been a dynamic place. Global warming and climate change look likely to lead to warmer drier summers, warmer wetter winters and a sea-level rise of up to 80cm by 2080.

This threatens coastal defenses which protect freshwater habitats from saltwater inundation. Some species are almost certain to be lost to the area. But little egrets are becoming more common.

We don't know what lies ahead. The big challenges are the ones we cannot control. It's dynamic and changing. Change shouldn't be a threat to us.

It would be pointless to try to protect things on the coast that are doomed to disappear. We want to manage it but hold on to the sense of tranquillity. The sense of remoteness is very rare in lowland England.

The organisations that work with it are looking to manage the change by allowing the coast and its wildlife to free themselves from the boundaries that act as a straitjacket.

There is a need to move towards a naturally functioning coastline rather than rely on man-made defences. Freshwater habitats that are protected by sea-walls will gradually be replaced by salt marsh and other coastal habitats.

Increased erosion of the dune system means that we need to start considering some form of planned retreat. We will replace coastal freshwater habitats with newly created habitats further inland. We need to ensure that landscapes and wildlife habitats are more resilient in order to cope with the impacts of climate change. The NWT envisages a large area of woodland heath and grassland made up of a network of connected habitats along the whole of the Cromer ridge, which would also provide recreational opportunities.

Another big challenge facing the coast is the pressure put on by it being such a coveted area for visitors. Norfolk's population will increase in the future, particularly in "growth point" communities including Norwich, King's Lynn and Thetford.

The changing coastline is having a big impact on farmers who see the sea gobbling up their land. They are also being forced to ponder how to make their businesses sustainable, while conserving landscape character and bio-diversity.

All of the projects have the people and environment of the area at heart. Reed cutters know that their jobs are secure and beautiful wildlife and vegetable gardens have been created at schools. rw
Ralph says: I was born in this area but walking to the sea was a very different thing in those days. Very quiet and lonely.

Humanity is Consuming Over 20 Per Cent More Natural Resources Each Year Than the Earth Can Produce. March 08, 2008 The News
The report in the WWF's (World Wide Fund for Nature) periodic update on the state of the world's ecosystems said humanity is now consuming over 20% more natural resources each year than the earth can produce. This leads to the destruction of ecological assets, on which the world's economy depends. The report shows that humanity's Ecological Footprint grew by 150% between 1961 and 2000.

During the same period, the report shows a 40% decline in terrestrial, freshwater, and marine species population. Ten years after the UN Rio conference in 1992, the Footprint in the 27 wealthiest countries increased by 8% per person, while in the middle and low income countries, it shrank by 8% per person.

Consumption of fossil fuels increased by almost 700% between 1961 and 2001. But the planet is unable to absorb the resulting carbon-dioxide emissions that degrade the earth's ozone layer.

We are spending nature's capital faster than it can regenerate.

The biggest culprit is the US. Although it has only 4.5% of the world's population, it consumes more than 29% of the world's annual output of renewable resources. The US has been urging developing countries to adopt sustainable development, but there is no sign of the US adopting such policies.
With more than 120 million vehicles on its roads the US is also the biggest culprit when it comes to generating carbon-dioxide emissions.

The global community has set targets for sustainability and biodiversity conservation. At the 2004 meeting of the UN Convention on Biological Diversity, governments agreed to set targets for creating networks of protected areas.
All 191 member states of the UN have signed up to support the MDGs, which not only address the root causes of environmental degradation but include a specific goal on environmental sustainability.

Some might argue that governments are wasting their time talking. The fact is that governments today are no further to achieving the MDGs than they were seven years ago.

Populations of terrestrial, freshwater and marine species fell on an average by 40% between 1970 and 2000. Destruction of natural habitats, pollution, overfishing and the introduction of non-native animals, often drive out indigenous species.

Trawlers and dredgers wreak destruction across the seabed, crushing entire ecosystems of corals, algae and crustaceans as they go. But will governments take heed? Or will they continue to look the other way? The forest species declined by about 15%, the marine species 35%, while the freshwater species dropped 55% over the 30-year period.

The earth has about 11.4 billion hectares of productive land and sea space, after all unproductive areas are discounted. Divided between the current estimated global population of 6.4 billion, this total equates to 1.78 hectares per person.

When the world's population was slightly less than 6 billion, the Ecological Footprint of the world's average consumer was 2.3 hectares, or 20% above the earth's capacity of 1.90 hectares per person versus 1.78 hectares per person today. In other words, humanity now exceeds the planet's capacity to sustain its consumption of renewable resources. rw

Australia: The S Word is Sustainability. March 12, 2008 Sunshine Coast Daily
Rapid population growth means, the future of our society, our economy and our environment; the structure of our cities, their energy and water sources the imminent peaking of world oil supplies; our use of finite resources like gas and coal; and the way we dispose of those resources.

Today, global demands on natural systems exceed their sustainable yield by an estimated 25%. We are setting the stage for decline and collapse.

With some exceptions, policy makers have been guilty of allowing sustainability to be cast as a peculiarly environmental issue. Sustainability is the ultimate whole of government - indeed, whole of society - issue.

Sustainability must be the foundation upon which we build economic strength and natural resilience.

It must be central to our planning, thinking and acting as we seek to live in harmony with the planet.

Global warming is a symptom of the problem of living unsustainably. Consuming fossil fuels without considering the waste is a sustainability issue.

The rate of increase in greenhouse concentrations is unprecedented in the 10,000 years since the end of the last ice age. Human induced global catastrophe as it should be known, might be the clarion call that heralds another threat caused by our careless consumption of fossil fuels.

A growing group of voices predict that between 2006 and 2020 the world will pass a point after which we will never have as much oil at our disposal as we did the day before.

November 2006 is the possible peak of production, with the world's daily average in that month of 85.5 million barrels per day (mbpd) of oil and condensates not having been exceeded in the 14 months since.

Crude has been consistently trading between US$100 and US$102 a barrel and we now stand on the threshold of an upswing in global oil prices that will have a significant impact on the economy of the world and for which we are seriously unprepared.

What both peak oil and climate change will impose upon us is a requirement to use less energy. We will need to live closer to work, schools and shops and public transport.

We have the capacity with existing technology and intellect to adopt more sustainable policies and practices to bring greenhouse gas emissions under control through greater use of renewable energy sources and to reduce our reliance on oil.

The challenge is to build a new economy, one that is powered largely by renewable sources of energy, that has a highly diversified transport system, and that reuses and recycles everything. And to do it with unprecedented speed.

In an energy-constrained world dedicated to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, it's time we spoke of population.

The rampaging monster is over-population. In its presence, sustainability is a fragile theoretical thing.

People are ready to grasp the argument that the unsustainable growth in population numbers is degrading our planet. Population maldistribution increases the stress on available resources and heightens the need for more stringent sustainable living practices, such as water restrictions.

Developed countries have the double whammy of increasing populations and rampant consumerism.

It's one thing to provide the necessities of life� quite another to provide the trimmings demanded by affluence.

In the 21st century, the human race must confront the reality that in the closed system that is planet earth, there are limits to growth.

No matter how clever we are, there is no escaping the physical limits of the world's resources.

What we need above all is smart growth. .. Growth that is low carbon. .. Growth that is low pollution. .. Growth that is resource neutral.

We need growth that adds to the natural capital, instead of destroying it. rw

Could Resources Become a Limit to Global Growth?. March 24, 2008 Wall Street Journal
Surging food and energy prices are new reasons to re-think the relationship between resources and growth. There is a real wolf nearby, in the form of resource degradation and rapidly growing population.

When oil prices rose in the 1970s, this created incentives to develop more fuel-efficient vehicles, for most of the 1980s and 1990s, energy and food became more abundant. Technological progress stayed ahead of population growth and resource depletion. However, economic incentives cannot keep the wolf at bay indefinitely.

Resource prices have surpassed record levels and per-capita food availability has started to decline. Despite demographic transition to low fertility in East Asia, Europe, and North America, current population growth rates would still triple world population to over 20 billion in about 90 years. The question is whether population growth will fall due to declines in fertility or whether epidemics, malnutrition, and violent conflict will carry out the adjustment, aided by global warming.

Residents of China and India are unlikely to buy many SUVs, and economic incentives will push them in more environmentally friendly directions. If China were the model, I would be optimistic about the future. Fertility there has declined to about replacement level. China is poised to move where people demand better environmental quality as incomes rise.

The dismal picture is in Africa. Per capita income in sub-Saharan Africa fell between 1980 and 2005, despite improvements in technology made available in that period. Population growth remains very high and infectious disease, malnutrition, and violent conflict have become more entrenched and could spill over into other regions. Water provides an important example of resource scarcity. If the people of Los Angeles faced higher water prices, we would see households switch away from green grass.

A second set of issues concerns population growth in poor nations. Population growth helps to create new markets. Unfortunately, population growth in the developing world is unlikely to trigger such an innovation.

Market-based prices cannot do everything, largely because of non-priced third party effects. An electric utility using coal to produce electricity contributes to global warming and other pollution problems. This effect is not priced.

Decisions to have large numbers of children may also impose


May 07, 2008	Cairo Market ... Jane Derry